Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 79
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2016, 5:31 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 2, 2016, 5:31 PM CST (23:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 2, 2016, 7:30 PM CST
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 104 counties
Autauga County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Colbert County, AL, Cullman County, AL, Dallas County, AL, DeKalb County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jackson County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Limestone County, AL, Madison County, AL, Marion County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Morgan County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL, Dade County, GA, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Russell County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Lowndes County, MS, Bedford County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Franklin County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Lincoln County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marion County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Moore County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN
The radar
The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -287 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 485 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 71 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 346 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 387 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
541
ACUS11 KWNS 022332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022331
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN ALABAMA....MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...
VALID 022331Z - 030130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW11..WITH THE HIGHEST
NEAR-TERM THREAT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WW11. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA OVER THE
PAST HOUR...WITH A LIKELY LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADO ACROSS
PICKENS COUNTY ALABAMA ATTM. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED STORMS MOVING INTO A REGION OF WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP SHEAR.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS WW11...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THIS
LINE SHOULD REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TOWARD 02-03Z...AND
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKER IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE WATCH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING AIRMASS RECOVERY REMAIN
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE WW...ALTHOUGH THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP IN
THE REGION /LIKELY AFTER 03Z/.
..COOK/THOMPSON.. 02/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
PAH...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32288835 32978855 34028834 35818769 37398695 37928642
37948557 37798472 37168455 36178467 34758556 33588606
32798629 32258687 32328780 32288835SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 12:50 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Butler, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia and 3 more | 55 min |
| Feb 2, 1:18 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 2, 2:40 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman and 27 more | 95 min |
| Feb 2, 3:10 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman, Dallas and 23 more | 7 hr |
| Feb 2, 5:18 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more | 117 min |
| Feb 2, 9:54 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman, McCracken | 96 min |
| Feb 2, 12:22 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more | 9 hr |
| Feb 2, 10:41 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Attala, Benton, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw and 36 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 2, 1:43 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Choctaw, Clay, Covington, Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Leake and 9 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.