Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 79

February 2, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2016, 5:31 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2016, 5:31 PM CST (23:31 UTC)
Expired
Feb 2, 2016, 7:30 PM CST
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 104 counties

Autauga County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Colbert County, AL, Cullman County, AL, Dallas County, AL, DeKalb County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jackson County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Limestone County, AL, Madison County, AL, Marion County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Morgan County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL, Dade County, GA, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Russell County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Lowndes County, MS, Bedford County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Franklin County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Lincoln County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marion County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Moore County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-02-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-02-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 346 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-287 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
485 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
346 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
387 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

541 
ACUS11 KWNS 022332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022331 
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN ALABAMA....MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...

VALID 022331Z - 030130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW11..WITH THE HIGHEST
NEAR-TERM THREAT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WW11.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA OVER THE
PAST HOUR...WITH A LIKELY LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADO ACROSS
PICKENS COUNTY ALABAMA ATTM.  THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED STORMS MOVING INTO A REGION OF WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS WW11...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THIS
LINE SHOULD REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TOWARD 02-03Z...AND
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKER IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE WATCH.  SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING AIRMASS RECOVERY REMAIN
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE WW...ALTHOUGH THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP IN
THE REGION /LIKELY AFTER 03Z/.

..COOK/THOMPSON.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32288835 32978855 34028834 35818769 37398695 37928642
            37948557 37798472 37168455 36178467 34758556 33588606
            32798629 32258687 32328780 32288835

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 12:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Butler, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia and 3 more55 min
Feb 2, 1:18 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more6 hr
Feb 2, 2:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman and 27 more95 min
Feb 2, 3:10 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman, Dallas and 23 more7 hr
Feb 2, 5:18 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more117 min
Feb 2, 9:54 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman, McCracken96 min
Feb 2, 12:22 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more9 hr
Feb 2, 10:41 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Attala, Benton, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw and 36 more2 hr
Feb 2, 1:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Clay, Covington, Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Leake and 9 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.