Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 72
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2016, 9:54 AM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 2, 2016, 9:54 AM CST (15:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 2, 2016, 11:30 AM CST
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 53 counties
Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Hickman County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 226 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -78 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 520 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 68 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 403 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 512 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.2
The text
As transmitted.
244
ACUS11 KWNS 021555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021554
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021554Z - 021730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH COULD
COMMENCE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 17-18Z.
DISCUSSION...STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO
UPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOW NOSING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW UNDERWAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING.
AS THIS CONTINUES...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AUGMENTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL BY SURFACE HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INCLUDE INTENSIFICATION OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION...AND DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. AND STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A
50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD
WITH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
..KERR/GOSS.. 02/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36609134 37659086 38438924 37768815 35758943 34779069
35009163 35709161 36609134SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 12:22 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Chicot, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene and 5 more | 9 hr |
| Feb 2, 2:40 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Barren, Breckinridge, Butler, Cumberland, Edmonson and 10 more | 95 min |
| Feb 2, 3:10 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge, Butler and 24 more | 7 hr |
| Feb 2, 5:31 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge, Butler and 25 more | 119 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.