Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 78

February 2, 20167 counties in Alabama; 31 parishes in Louisiana; 43 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2016, 5:18 PM CST for 7 counties in Alabama; 31 parishes in Louisiana; 43 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2016, 5:18 PM CST (23:18 UTC)
Expired
Feb 2, 2016, 7:15 PM CST
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 81 counties

Baldwin County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Acadia Parish, LA, Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Warren County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2016-02-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 648 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2016-02-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 257 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
648 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-84 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
447 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
257 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
354 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

693 
ACUS11 KWNS 022319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022318 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SRN AND ERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...

VALID 022318Z - 030115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN LA...SRN AND
CNTRL MS AND SW AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE
NERN PART OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN WRN MS WITH
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SE LA ACROSS MOST OF MS. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
70S F WITH MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE CNTRL PART OF THE WATCH. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER MORE INTENSE LINE LOCATED
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSON NNEWD TO NEAR COLUMBUS MS. THE WSR-88D VWP AT JACKSON MS
SHOWS STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELCITIES IN
THE 350 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE IN THE NERN PART OF THE WATCH NEAR THE AL STATE LINE WHERE
THE CORE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED. ALTHOUGH SFC
WINDS ARE MORE VEERED IN THE SRN PART OF THE WATCH...ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

..BROYLES.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29529131 29609146 29699148 29779169 29639193 29549233
            29609262 30019264 30039271 30119260 30449262 30569240
            30529223 30739215 30989227 30979223 31299222 31349200
            31859204 31939192 32089186 32179195 32279203 32409199
            32659167 32899154 33029146 33019086 33109088 33089061
            32919061 32899039 33029041 32969021 32848985 32878972
            32948973 32898837 32298842 32308807 32018812 31968768
            32118758 32118752 32258749 32248739 32038710 32028688
            31798693 31588715 31358736 31278749 31248764 30848763
            30718744 30518742 30398743 30268760 30238861 30198904
            30098930 30038945 30158954 30188973 30188983 30048993
            30029020 30119041 30019059 29899052 29909074 29929088
            29719097 29559112 29529131

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 12:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Butler, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia and 3 more55 min
Feb 2, 1:18 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more6 hr
Feb 2, 2:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman and 27 more95 min
Feb 2, 3:10 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman, Dallas and 23 more7 hr
Feb 2, 5:31 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman and 26 more119 min
Feb 2, 10:41 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEast Carroll, Franklin, Madison, Tensas2 hr
Feb 2, 12:22 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 33 more9 hr
Feb 2, 1:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Clay, Covington, Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Leake and 9 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.