Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 76

February 2, 201615 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2016, 1:43 PM CST for 15 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 2, 2016, 1:43 PM CST (19:43 UTC)
Expired: Feb 2, 2016, 3:45 PM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Covington County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Scott County, MS, Smith County, MS, Winston County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 11Feb 2, 3:10 PM CST

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 550 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -159 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 590 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 329 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 540 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

568 
ACUS11 KWNS 021944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021943 
MSZ000-022145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...9...

VALID 021943Z - 022145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10...9...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADIC POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 21-22Z.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN
APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR.  THE
LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS OF 50 KT ALONG AN AXIS JUST EAST
OF THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER AREA THROUGH 21-22Z.  COINCIDING WITH ENLARGEMENT OF
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE WITH INSOLATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  THIS ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY
NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF MERIDIAN...TOWARD STARKVILLE.  THIS
INCLUDES THE RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO.

..KERR.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32788973 33688921 34108852 33668833 32108886 31548936
            31389001 32788973

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 2, 10:41 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Attala, Benton, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw and 36 more	2 hr
Feb 2, 12:22 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 33 more	9 hr
Feb 2, 12:50 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Forrest, George, Greene, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson and 8 more	55 min
Feb 2, 1:18 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adams, Amite, Claiborne, Clarke, Copiah, Covington and 37 more	6 hr
Feb 2, 5:18 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Amite, Claiborne, Clarke, Copiah, Covington and 37 more	117 min
Feb 2, 5:31 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lowndes	119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.