Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 75
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2016, 12:50 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 55 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 2, 2016, 12:50 PM CST (18:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 2, 2016, 1:45 PM CST
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 37 counties
Baldwin County, AL, Butler County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Jefferson Parish, LA, Lafourche Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Terrebonne Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, Forrest County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS
The radar
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 648 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -84 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 447 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 257 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 354 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 4.5
The text
As transmitted.
093
ACUS11 KWNS 021851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021850
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SERN MS...SRN AL...AND THE
FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021850Z - 021945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
MAIN THREATS. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM KLIX SHOWS A NEARLY UNCAPPED
SURFACE-BASED PARCEL...AND CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA INTO SRN AL...MOST LIKELY ALONG
MULTIPLE CONFLUENCE LINES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING
THE MS RIVER. SIMILAR TO THE METEOROLOGICAL REASONING PROVIDED IN
MCD 73 FOR MUCH OF MS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLY/SELY WINDS...INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIKEWISE INCREASE...WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG BECOMING COMMON
ACROSS THE MCD AREA. BOTH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA AS WELL AS
LOCATIONS FURTHER W IN CNTRL/SRN MS AND PARTS OF ERN LA IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..GLEASON/GOSS.. 02/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30298822 29718916 29288975 28969074 29279121 29949096
31399003 31868874 31948790 31928692 31828634 30478653
30298822SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 1:18 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 2, 2:40 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman and 27 more | 95 min |
| Feb 2, 3:10 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman, Dallas and 23 more | 7 hr |
| Feb 2, 5:18 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more | 117 min |
| Feb 2, 5:31 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman and 26 more | 119 min |
| Feb 2, 10:41 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | East Carroll, Franklin, Madison, Tensas | 2 hr |
| Feb 2, 12:22 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 33 more | 9 hr |
| Feb 2, 1:43 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Choctaw, Clay, Covington, Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Leake and 9 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.