Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 12

February 2, 20167 counties in Alabama; 5 parishes in Louisiana; 43 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 2, 2016, 6:52 PM CST for 7 counties in Alabama; 5 parishes in Louisiana; 43 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 2, 2016, 6:52 PM CST (00:52 UTC)
Expired: Feb 3, 2016, 3:00 AM CST
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 55 counties

Baldwin County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, Amite County, MS, Attala County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS, Winston County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 10%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

10 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 2, 7:17 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Leake, Neshoba, Winston	4 hr
Feb 2, 7:47 PM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Lowndes, Noxubee	58 min
Feb 2, 7:56 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Copiah, Simpson	49 min
Feb 2, 8:07 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Rankin, Simpson	3 hr
Feb 2, 8:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Rankin, Scott, Smith	31 min
Feb 2, 9:01 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Clay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha	3 hr
Feb 2, 9:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Neshoba, Noxubee, Winston	38 min
Feb 2, 9:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge	31 min
Feb 2, 9:47 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Kemper, Neshoba, Noxubee	43 min
Feb 2, 10:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lowndes, Noxubee	45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 364 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -70 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 893 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 204 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 226 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

059 
WWUS20 KWNS 030049
SEL2  
SPC WW 030049
ALZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-030900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 12
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
  A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
  SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
  COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 650 PM
  UNTIL 300 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI
AND LOUISIANA.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF MERIDIAN
MISSISSIPPI TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MC COMB MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 10. WATCH NUMBER 10 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 650
PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 9...WW 11...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 2, 8:50 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman, Fayette and 22 more	55 min
Feb 2, 9:59 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Autauga, Bibb, Chilton, Clay, Coosa, Dallas and 14 more	6 hr
Feb 2, 10:23 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more	2 hr
Feb 3, 1:30 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Calhoun, Clay, Coosa, Elmore, Macon, Talladega and 1 more	60 min
Feb 2, 6:13 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 30 more	2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2016 Tornado Watches in Alabama, 2016 Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2016 Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.