Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 83
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2016, 8:50 PM CST for 28 counties in Alabama; Lowndes County, Mississippi; 32 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 55 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 2, 2016, 8:50 PM CST (02:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 2, 2016, 9:45 PM CST
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 61 counties
Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Colbert County, AL, Cullman County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jackson County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Limestone County, AL, Madison County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Morgan County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL, Lowndes County, MS, Bedford County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Franklin County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Lincoln County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marion County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Moore County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN
The radar
The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 313 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -40 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 765 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 371 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 518 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.9
- Supercell composite
- 5.2
The text
As transmitted.
379
ACUS11 KWNS 030251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030250
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0850 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALABAMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...
VALID 030250Z - 030345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW
11...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA.
DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WW 11. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
OCCASIONAL STRONG LOW-LEVEL ROTATION CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. OTHER
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF WW 11 /ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA/ ALSO CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITHIN CONFLUENT/UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR FLOW... AND MAY ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
FAVORABLE STORM MODE AND STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-SHEAR. PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY NEED A NEW WW AS THE TORNADO THREAT IN
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND THE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME.
FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WEAKER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
IS LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION
CONTAINING LEWP-TYPE STRUCTURES SUGGEST AN ISOLATED WIND GUST OR
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED AS STORMS ENTER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WW 11. THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THIS CONVECTION
REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...AND IS IT LIKELY THAT MUCH OF WW 11 MAY
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED.
..COOK/THOMPSON.. 02/03/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32538845 33348857 34618815 36018750 36558702 36648639
36578576 36468536 35948517 34788570 33278645 32578686
32268728 32188769 32348823 32538845SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 6:52 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more | 8 hr |
| Feb 2, 9:59 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Autauga, Bibb, Chilton, Clay, Coosa, Dallas and 14 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 2, 10:23 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 3, 1:30 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calhoun, Clay, Coosa, Elmore, Macon, Talladega and 1 more | 60 min |
| Feb 2, 6:13 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 30 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 3, 3:58 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blount, Cocke, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock and 5 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.