Mesoscale Discussion 80

Issued

Feb 2, 2016, 6:13 PM CST (00:13 UTC)

Expired

Feb 2, 2016, 8:15 PM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

983 
ACUS11 KWNS 030014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030013 COR
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN KY AND FAR SRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...9...

VALID 030013Z - 030215Z

CORRECTED FOR WW #

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11...9...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 9 FROM
NRN MS NWD INTO WRN KY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WIND DAMAGE AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH
TIME AND A LOCAL WW EXTENSION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A COUPLE
HOURS TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING SEVERE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MS
RIVER WITH A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LINE
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S F WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY. REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS SHOW VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE PADUCAH WSR-88D VWP
HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 75 KT WITH 50 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM AGL. THIS WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE MAY ALSO CONTAIN A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ERN PART OF WW
9 OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

..BROYLES.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   32928835 34868810 35018821 34998797 35258797 35358802
            35448797 35518767 35628764 35668771 35898770 35998755
            36288751 36368748 36338723 36508712 36628715 36638705
            37068705 37088693 37248689 37408705 37508716 37598691
            37748683 37938696 37848707 37878720 37968753 37888760
            37878772 37918794 37808792 37778804 37918818 37908871
            37468870 37328877 37328892 37088912 36908911 36658920
            36608933 36578953 36458948 36448936 36278943 36188939
            36198919 36178916 35948921 35838937 35558952 35428942
            35328954 35358962 35038964 34979034 34549019 34089014
            34089050 33979049 33999065 34129070 34159089 34029099
            33979111 33819104 33719115 33649110 33589122 33559139
            33539144 33049148 32999097 33099098 33089063 32949064
            32949042 33029046 32979027 32878983 32888972 32958973
            32928835

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.