Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 87
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2016, 4:58 AM EST for Graham County, Swain County, North Carolina; 11 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 3, 2016, 4:58 AM EST (09:58 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 3, 2016, 6:30 AM EST
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Graham County, NC, Swain County, NC, Blount County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Sevier County, TN
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -189 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1227 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 75 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 479 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 645 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
647
ACUS11 KWNS 030959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030958
TNZ000-NCZ000-031130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030958Z - 031130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST
WILL PERSIST OVER NERN TN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...A STRONGLY FORCED LOW-TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION NEAR
KNOXVILLE AND SWD INTO SERN TN IS MOVING EAST AT NEAR 50 KT. STRONG
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE 60-70 KT SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN
THE LINE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CAPE IS VERY LIMITED AND SHALLOW...AND
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE/SPORADIC.
NEVERTHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR SOME OF THE
HIGH MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC WITHIN BANDS OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.
..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 02/03/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 36028407 36498359 36588259 36058256 35708328 35178402
35178455 36028407SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 1:56 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anson, Hoke, Richmond, Robeson, Scotland | 2 hr |
| Feb 2, 7:13 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Fayette and 15 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 2, 9:50 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Coffee, Davidson, DeKalb and 26 more | 55 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.