Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 88

February 3, 20165 counties in North Carolina; 10 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2016, 1:56 PM EST for 5 counties in North Carolina; 10 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 3, 2016, 1:56 PM EST (18:56 UTC)
Expired
Feb 3, 2016, 4:00 PM EST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Anson County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Chesterfield County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Richland County, SC, Sumter County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-02-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-02-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 411 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
500 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
411 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
494 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

396 
ACUS11 KWNS 031857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031856 
NCZ000-SCZ000-032100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031856Z - 032100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT BETWEEN NOW AND 20-22Z.  THE
NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW LINE OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO/THROUGH THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  NEAR AN APPARENT WAVE WITHIN THIS LINE...NOW
APPROACHING THE COLUMBIA SC AREA...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING A PERSISTENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...TOWARD THE FAYETTEVILLE NC
AREA...BETWEEN NOW AND 20-22Z.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THIS REGION...INSOLATION...COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG.  WITH AT LEAST SOME FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
RECENT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EVIDENT IN THE COLUMBIA
VWP DATA...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW FIELDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.  IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR/KERR.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34328120 34818066 35118000 35347929 35227884 34627882
            33718072 33718148 34328120

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 3, 4:58 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGraham, Swain92 min
Feb 3, 5:29 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJasper61 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.