Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 89
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2016, 5:29 PM EST for 8 counties in Georgia; Jasper County, South Carolina. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 3, 2016, 5:29 PM EST (22:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 3, 2016, 6:30 PM EST
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Appling County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Evans County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Jasper County, SC
The radar
The Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 127 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -54 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 692 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 215 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 283 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted.
000
ACUS11 KWNS 032230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032229
SCZ000-GAZ000-032330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / SC LOW COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032229Z - 032330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM SERN GA INTO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN
GA AND NEARING THE GREATER SAV AREA AHEAD OF A SEWD-SAGGING QLCS.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE
DURING THIS PERIOD OWING TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 80/70 ON THE
IMMEDIATE INFLOW TO THE S OF THE ONGOING SUPERCELL CLUSTER BEFORE
DIURNAL HEAT LOSS THIS EVENING. AS STORMS TRACK NEWD TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...COOLER TEMPS /LOW TO MID 70S/ MAY IN TURN PROVE
LESS FAVORABLE BUOYANCY-WISE BUT ADEQUATELY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS /0-3 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2 PER S2 VIA THE KCLX VAD/ MAY
ALLOW SOME TORNADO RISK TO MOVE INTO THE SC LOW COUNTRY VICINITY.
..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/03/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 31718259 32568128 32448095 32098085 31868103 31488238
31718259SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 4:08 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Banks, Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee and 44 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 3, 5:32 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atkinson, Berrien, Brooks, Clinch, Colquitt, Cook and 5 more | 88 min |
| Feb 3, 1:56 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chesterfield, Darlington, Dillon, Kershaw, Lancaster, Lee and 4 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.