Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 86

February 3, 201650 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2016, 4:08 AM EST for 50 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 3, 2016, 4:08 AM EST (09:08 UTC)
Expired: Feb 3, 2016, 6:15 AM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 50 counties

Banks County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Bartow County, GA, Butts County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Dawson County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Floyd County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Gordon County, GA, Greene County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hall County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Heard County, GA, Henry County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Madison County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Murray County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Paulding County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Pike County, GA, Polk County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Troup County, GA, Walton County, GA, White County, GA, Wilkes County, GA

The radar

The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 13 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -77 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 955 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 226 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 329 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

694 
ACUS11 KWNS 030908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030908 
GAZ000-ALZ000-031115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST WED FEB 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 030908Z - 031115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BROKEN SQLN IN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG LOW-LVL SHEAR
OVER NE AL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NRN GA
THROUGH LATER THIS MRNG...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING A WW IN THE NEXT
HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED...SSW-NNE-ORIENTED SQLN IN NE AL SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING ENE AT ABUT 35 KTS...WHILE EMBEDDED STORMS MOVE NNE
ALONG THE LINE AT A SOMEWHAT GREATER SPEED. DEEP WIND FIELD
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY AS
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SQLN ADVANCES FARTHER N
ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF LOW
TO MID-LVL WIND FIELD OVER GA...WITH 60+ KT 850-500 MB FLOW PER
ATLANTA VWP...WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN AMPLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL SUSTAINED/ROTATING STORMS DESPITE GRADUAL WEAKENING.
COUPLED WITH SIZABLE LOW-LVL VEERING COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /PERHAPS
AUGMENTED ALONG REMNANT WEDGE-TYPE BOUNDARY ALONG THE SRN FOOTHILLS
OF THE APPALACHIANS/...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
F...SETUP COULD POSE A RISK FOR SPORADIC LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR A
TORNADO. PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES IN ERN AL ATTM FURTHER
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION AND A RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL SVR WX...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..CORFIDI/DIAL.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   33858258 33188365 32818462 32898508 33498545 34218551
            34798503 34838349 33858258

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 3, 5:29 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Appling, Bryan, Chatham, Effingham, Evans, Liberty and 2 more	61 min
Feb 3, 5:32 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atkinson, Berrien, Brooks, Clinch, Colquitt, Cook and 5 more	88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.