Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 90
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2016, 5:32 PM EST for 7 counties in Florida; 11 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 3, 2016, 5:32 PM EST (22:32 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 3, 2016, 7:00 PM EST
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Gadsden County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Atkinson County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Echols County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Ware County, GA
The radar
The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 61 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -63 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 588 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 283 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 317 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
234
ACUS11 KWNS 032232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032232
GAZ000-FLZ000-040000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032232Z - 040000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS CROSSING PARTS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED STRONG/DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE
IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL GA TO THE CNTRL FL
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD INTO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. THIS
IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 250-1000 J/KG...THOUGH POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY EARLIER 12Z RAOBS WILL TEND TO TEMPER
CONVECTIVE-SCALE UPWARD ACCELERATIONS. VWP DATA AT VAX SUGGEST DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE
BAND...WHICH WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCIPIENT
CONVECTION BECOMING QUICKLY UNDERCUT. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DEEP
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KT MAY SUPPORT BRIEF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION...WITH LOCALIZED STRONG TO DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE-BAND-PARALLEL FLOW...AND APPROACHING
NIGHTFALL WITH ASSOCIATED GAINS IN BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY
WILL ALL CURTAIL THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR-TSTM RISK.
..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 02/03/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30248510 31488338 31488255 31138228 30748253 30438295
30158369 29978499 30248510SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 4:08 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Banks, Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee and 44 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 3, 5:29 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Appling, Bryan, Chatham, Effingham, Evans, Liberty and 2 more | 61 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.