Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 741

May 26, 20169 counties in Kansas; 14 counties in Oklahoma; 6 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2016, 1:13 PM CDT for 9 counties in Kansas; 14 counties in Oklahoma; 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2016, 1:13 PM CDT (18:13 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2016, 3:15 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%
All 29 counties

Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Meade County, KS, Seward County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2016-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 212 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2016-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 71 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
212 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-425 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2776 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
110 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

263 
ACUS11 KWNS 261813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261813 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-262015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 261813Z - 262015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...AND A SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE. 
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE
INCREASING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
HOUR...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  INSTABILITY IS
VERY STRONG IN THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG
SUGGESTIVE OF A HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME
GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.  ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VORTICITY INGEST OF ANY ISOLATED
UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  GENERALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.  SOME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LESSENED EFFECTIVE
INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA...WITH GENERALLY HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION
EXPECTED THAT WILL CONTAIN A HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.

..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34750057 36290086 37180087 37830067 38269991 38269958
            37779911 37059874 36499863 35919854 35389863 34839878
            34489927 34399982 34420017 34750057

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 7:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 28 more115 min
May 25, 10:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Butler, Chase, Coffey and 23 more83 min
May 25, 11:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Atchison, Brown, Clay, Coffey, Dickinson and 18 more5 hr
May 25, 11:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDouglas, Franklin, Osage, Shawnee5 hr
May 26, 10:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Jackson and 13 more57 min
May 26, 1:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 28 more2 hr
May 26, 1:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Barber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase and 51 more10 hr
May 26, 1:53 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Jewell and 13 more8 hr
May 26, 2:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtchison, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami and 1 more8 hr
May 26, 3:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Greeley, Logan, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace and 1 more2 hr
May 26, 4:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWyandotte94 min
May 26, 5:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark and 25 more95 min
May 26, 6:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan, Sherman and 2 more59 min
May 26, 3:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver60 min
May 25, 8:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kinney, Pecos and 5 more83 min
May 26, 12:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColeman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kimble and 8 more36 min
May 26, 7:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Coryell, Hamilton, Hill, Limestone, McLennan and 1 more115 min
May 26, 1:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 29 more115 min
May 26, 2:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards and 22 more2 hr
May 26, 3:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more8 hr
May 26, 6:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Colorado, Fayette, Fort Bend, Harris, Montgomery and 2 more95 min
May 26, 6:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more67 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.