Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 736

May 26, 201614 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2016, 12:54 AM CDT for 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 36 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2016, 12:54 AM CDT (05:54 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2016, 1:30 AM CDT
In force
36 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Coleman County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Irion County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Val Verde County, TX

The radar

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDLF), launched 00:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3634 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2016-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3634 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-141 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1075 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
6.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

215 
ACUS11 KWNS 260555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260554 
TXZ000-260630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 260554Z - 260630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER PECOS
VALLEY WILL PROBABLY MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TONIGHT.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A COUPLE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OVER PECOS AND REAGAN COUNTIES.  A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDS VERY LARGE TO
EXTREME BUOYANCY AMIDST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  A LOWER-LATITUDE H7 TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
NRN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S AND E ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU.  A RECENT ITERATION OF THE ESRL HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE OR EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE.  GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29700158 30730218 31430136 31959922 30719884 29779963
            29700158

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 8:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kinney, Pecos and 5 more83 min
May 26, 7:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Coryell, Hamilton, Hill, Limestone, McLennan and 1 more115 min
May 26, 1:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChildress, Collingsworth, Hemphill, Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Wheeler2 hr
May 26, 1:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Foard, Hardeman, Knox, Wichita and 1 more10 hr
May 26, 1:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 29 more115 min
May 26, 2:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards and 22 more2 hr
May 26, 3:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more8 hr
May 26, 3:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChildress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Donley, Gray, Hall and 6 more60 min
May 26, 6:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Colorado, Fayette, Fort Bend, Harris, Montgomery and 2 more95 min
May 26, 6:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more67 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.