Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 744

May 26, 201628 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2016, 2:43 PM CDT for 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2016, 2:43 PM CDT (19:43 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2016, 4:45 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 28 counties

Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kimble County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Val Verde County, TX

The radar

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1674 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 190 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1674 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-159 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1668 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
190 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
188 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
2.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

741 
ACUS11 KWNS 261943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261943 
TXZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 261943Z - 262145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN FAR SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WEST OF A DRYLINE...AND SOME CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY
IN WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH TIME...THE HIGHER BASED
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE DRYLINE INTO A
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS AND 1500-3000
J/KG MLCAPE.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
THIS REGION AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.  GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY...40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR...AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH EVENING...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33329897 33389927 33460016 32990063 32120112 31160191
            30530232 29980224 29710147 30019982 31879900 32659877
            33159882 33329897

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 8:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kinney, Pecos and 5 more83 min
May 26, 12:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColeman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kimble and 8 more36 min
May 26, 7:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Coryell, Hamilton, Hill, Limestone, McLennan and 1 more115 min
May 26, 1:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChildress, Collingsworth, Hemphill, Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Wheeler2 hr
May 26, 1:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Foard, Hardeman, Knox, Wichita and 1 more10 hr
May 26, 1:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 29 more115 min
May 26, 3:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more8 hr
May 26, 3:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChildress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Donley, Gray, Hall and 6 more60 min
May 26, 6:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Colorado, Fayette, Fort Bend, Harris, Montgomery and 2 more95 min
May 26, 6:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more67 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.