Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 744
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2016, 2:43 PM CDT for 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 26, 2016, 2:43 PM CDT (19:43 UTC)
- Expired
- May 26, 2016, 4:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 28 counties
Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kimble County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Val Verde County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1674 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -159 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1668 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 190 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 188 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 2.8
The text
As transmitted.
741
ACUS11 KWNS 261943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261943
TXZ000-262145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261943Z - 262145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN FAR SOUTHWEST
TEXAS WEST OF A DRYLINE...AND SOME CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ESPECIALLY
IN WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TIME...THE HIGHER BASED
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE DRYLINE INTO A
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS AND 1500-3000
J/KG MLCAPE. ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
THIS REGION AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY...40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR...AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH EVENING...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
..COOK/HART.. 05/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33329897 33389927 33460016 32990063 32120112 31160191
30530232 29980224 29710147 30019982 31879900 32659877
33159882 33329897SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 8:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kinney, Pecos and 5 more | 83 min |
| May 26, 12:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kimble and 8 more | 36 min |
| May 26, 7:35 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Coryell, Hamilton, Hill, Limestone, McLennan and 1 more | 115 min |
| May 26, 1:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Childress, Collingsworth, Hemphill, Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Wheeler | 2 hr |
| May 26, 1:31 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Foard, Hardeman, Knox, Wichita and 1 more | 10 hr |
| May 26, 1:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 29 more | 115 min |
| May 26, 3:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more | 8 hr |
| May 26, 3:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Donley, Gray, Hall and 6 more | 60 min |
| May 26, 6:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Colorado, Fayette, Fort Bend, Harris, Montgomery and 2 more | 95 min |
| May 26, 6:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more | 67 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.