Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 737
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2016, 7:35 AM CDT for 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 115 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 26, 2016, 7:35 AM CDT (12:35 UTC)
- Expired
- May 26, 2016, 9:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Bosque County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Navarro County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3416 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -76 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 661 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 13 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 35 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 122 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 4.9
The text
As transmitted.
891
ACUS11 KWNS 261235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261235
TXZ000-261430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261235Z - 261430Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS CROSSING PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX THIS MORNING
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND WIND. WW ISSUANCE IS
PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED CONVECTION EVOLVING WITHIN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX CONTINUES W OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY
IS SLOWLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD WITHIN A MODEST WARM-ADVECTION REGIME.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB SAMPLES ABUNDANTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY A LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 16.9 G/KG.
ONLY LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR NOCTURNAL MLCINH TO
ERODE...GIVING WAY TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY PROVIDED THE H7-H5
LAPSE RATE OF 9 C/KM. AS SUCH...ONGOING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 20-25 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN
THE SHORT-TERM...KEEPING THE OVERALL SVR RISK MARGINAL/ISOLATED.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF BUOYANCY.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
LAT...LON 31539829 32309755 32269632 31559625 31289677 31239776
31539829SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 8:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kinney, Pecos and 5 more | 83 min |
| May 26, 12:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kimble and 8 more | 36 min |
| May 26, 1:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Childress, Collingsworth, Hemphill, Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Wheeler | 2 hr |
| May 26, 1:31 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Foard, Hardeman, Knox, Wichita and 1 more | 10 hr |
| May 26, 1:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar, Brazos, Burleson and 29 more | 115 min |
| May 26, 2:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Edwards and 22 more | 2 hr |
| May 26, 3:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more | 8 hr |
| May 26, 3:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Donley, Gray, Hall and 6 more | 60 min |
| May 26, 6:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Colorado, Fayette, Fort Bend, Harris, Montgomery and 2 more | 95 min |
| May 26, 6:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 21 more | 67 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.