Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 734

May 25, 201629 counties in Kansas; 6 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2016, 10:07 PM CDT for 29 counties in Kansas; 6 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 25, 2016, 10:07 PM CDT (03:07 UTC)
Expired
May 25, 2016, 11:30 PM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 39 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Elk County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, Miami County, KS, Morris County, KS, Osage County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Platte County, MO, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Noble County, OK

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2016-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1565 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2016-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 92 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1565 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-119 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1239 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
92 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
192 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
11.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

145 
ACUS11 KWNS 260307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260307 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-260430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KS...NRN OK...WRN MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 260307Z - 260430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...EXTENDED WW 210 CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS NRN OK AND
CENTRAL/ERN KS UNTIL 04Z.  TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO WITH SUPERCELLS IN NERN KS AND NRN OK SECTIONS OF THIS WW. 
ANOTHER WW IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED SOON FARTHER E ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
KS AND WRN MO.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED/TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
PORTIONS ALFALFA/GARFIELD/GRANT COUNTIES OK.  INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF
THIS STORM MAY ALLOW IT TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...GIVEN
LLJ-EXPANDED 0-2-KM HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLY MOIST INFLOW. 
STRENGTHENING MLCINH EVENTUALLY WILL OVERCOME FORCED ASCENT FROM
LOW/MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONE...BUT UNTIL THEN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST.

NEAR AND NE OF EXISTING/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL...LOCATED IN WABAUNSEE
COUNTY KS AS OF 03Z...PRIND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND INTO WRN MO.  FETCH OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA...MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT WILL PERSIST IN CONCERT
WITH STRENGTHENING/PEAKING SWLY LLJ...PER VWP DATA AND FCST
SOUNDINGS.  2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD PERSIST AMIDST ONLY SLOWLY
INCREASING MLCINH WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. 
MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST 35-45 KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN SUPPORT OF STORM ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36189717 36209800 36439828 36789818 37359764 38109751
            38719721 39059663 39669583 40099480 39239414 38469433
            37999500 37529592 37129657 36709700 36189717

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 7:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 28 more115 min
May 25, 11:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Atchison, Brown, Clay, Coffey, Dickinson and 18 more5 hr
May 25, 11:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDouglas, Franklin, Osage, Shawnee5 hr
May 26, 10:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Jackson and 13 more57 min
May 26, 1:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 28 more2 hr
May 26, 1:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman and 3 more2 hr
May 26, 1:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Barber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase and 51 more10 hr
May 26, 1:53 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Jewell and 13 more8 hr
May 26, 2:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtchison, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami and 1 more8 hr
May 26, 3:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Greeley, Logan, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace and 1 more2 hr
May 26, 4:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWyandotte94 min
May 26, 5:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark and 25 more95 min
May 26, 6:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan, Sherman and 2 more59 min
May 26, 1:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNew Madrid, Pemiscot2 hr
May 26, 5:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Nodaway, Worth63 min
May 26, 5:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudrain, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Camden, Cole and 15 more6 hr
May 26, 3:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.