Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 739

May 26, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2016, 10:33 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2016, 10:33 AM CDT (15:33 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2016, 11:30 AM CDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 37 counties

Fremont County, IA, Page County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Miami County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2016-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1730 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 12:00Z on 2016-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 247 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1730 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-118 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
756 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
247 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
285 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
10.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

572 
ACUS11 KWNS 261533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261533 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-261630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KANSAS....NWRN MISSOURI...SERN NEBRASKA...SWRN
IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261533Z - 261630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IN LINGERING STORMS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A BRANCH OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...HAS BEEN WEAKENING
THIS MORNING.  THE TENDENCY ALSO HAS BEEN FOR FLOW TO BACK FROM A
SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS THIS OCCURS...LINGERING
CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ABOVE CONGLOMERATE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...RECENTLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...SEEMS LIKELY TO SUBSIDE.

NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 18-19Z DOES NOT APPEAR ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION.  THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PERHAPS ALONG
A CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.  HOWEVER...THIS
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN IN THE NEAR TERM...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE
DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.

..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40099734 40569672 40859542 40769448 40109492 39549473
            39079408 38499442 38539608 39169657 39479747 40099734

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 8:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCherokee, Ida, Monona, O'Brien, Plymouth, Sioux and 1 more5 hr
May 25, 11:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudubon, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cherokee, Clay and 20 more86 min
May 26, 1:53 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCFremont, Harrison, Mills, Montgomery, Page, Pottawattamie and 1 more8 hr
May 26, 2:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Audubon, Cass, Clarke, Dallas and 10 more8 hr
May 26, 5:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFremont, Page, Taylor63 min
May 25, 7:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 28 more115 min
May 25, 10:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Butler, Chase, Coffey and 23 more83 min
May 25, 11:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Atchison, Brown, Clay, Coffey, Dickinson and 18 more5 hr
May 25, 11:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDouglas, Franklin, Osage, Shawnee5 hr
May 26, 1:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 28 more2 hr
May 26, 1:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Edwards, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman and 3 more2 hr
May 26, 1:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Barber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase and 51 more10 hr
May 26, 3:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Greeley, Logan, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace and 1 more2 hr
May 26, 4:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWyandotte94 min
May 26, 5:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark and 25 more95 min
May 26, 6:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan, Sherman and 2 more59 min
May 26, 1:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNew Madrid, Pemiscot2 hr
May 26, 5:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudrain, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Camden, Cole and 15 more6 hr
May 25, 7:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDawson, Frontier, Furnas, Gosper, Hayes, Hitchcock and 3 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.