Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 732

May 25, 20169 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2016, 7:23 PM CDT for 9 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2016, 7:23 PM CDT (00:23 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2016, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 97 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Dawson County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Red Willow County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 161 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211May 25, 8:35 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 70 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -219 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2426 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 186 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

233 
ACUS11 KWNS 260023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260023 
NEZ000-KSZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 260023Z - 260200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
IF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS SW NEB IS ABLE TO REMAIN
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO S-CNTRL NEB. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS SW NEB CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. RECENT INCREASE IN SEWD
MOTION WILL LIKELY TAKE IT OVER A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CNTRL
NEB SWWD TO JUST N OF IML AND THEN WWD INTO NE CO. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 500-1500 J PER KG /BASED ON
RECENT MESOANALYSIS/ WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO PRESENT
/BASED ON RECENT GLD VAD/. 

WITH DIURNAL HEATING NOW WANING...TIMING OF THIS CLUSTER MAY BE A
BIT TOO LATE TO TAP INTO THE BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
DOWNSTREAM...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE PERSISTENCE AND
STRENGTH OF THIS CLUSTER AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A GENERALLY ORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITH
ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF
ITS ABLE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE LLJ
INCREASES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39959990 39960029 40050073 40360173 41150131 41140043
            40929947 40279927 39959990

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 25, 8:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Antelope, Boone, Buffalo, Burt, Butler and 41 more	5 hr
May 25, 11:34 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burt, Butler, Cass, Colfax, Cuming, Dakota and 15 more	86 min
May 26, 10:33 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee and 1 more	57 min
May 26, 1:53 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adams, Buffalo, Butler, Cass, Clay, Dawson and 33 more	8 hr
May 26, 5:27 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Nemaha	63 min
May 26, 6:46 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dundy, Hitchcock, Red Willow	59 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.