Mesoscale Discussion 302

Issued

Mar 31, 2016, 10:26 AM CDT (15:26 UTC)

Expired

Mar 31, 2016, 1:00 PM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

60%

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 68Mar 31, 11:00 AM CDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 69Mar 31, 2:05 PM CDT

534 
ACUS11 KWNS 311527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311526 
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-311800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...FAR NW MS...WRN TN...FAR SW KY...FAR SE MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 311526Z - 311800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS LATE THIS MORNING BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD
FROM CNTRL MO INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NERN LA NNEWD INTO ERN AR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AS SFC HEATING TAKES
PLACE IN THE MID MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF ERN AR AND WRN TN. IN
ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT MEMPHIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT
WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
SUGGESTING THAT STORM ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY MOVE THE CURRENT
CONVECTION NEWD INTO FAR SE MO AND WRN TN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS CNTRL ERN AR. DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STORM MODE
WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND A FEW ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.
THE MAIN THREATS LATE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIND DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   36598780 35698812 34519001 33549131 33519232 34239287
            35379150 36399004 36838915 36598780

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.