Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 310
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2016, 3:48 PM CDT for Logan County, Simpson County, Warren County, Kentucky; 14 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 31, 2016, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 31, 2016, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Logan County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Warren County, KY, Cheatham County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Giles County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Perry County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Williamson County, TN
The radar
The Nashville radar (KOHX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 45 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 834 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 673 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 836 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
651
ACUS11 KWNS 312048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312048
KYZ000-TNZ000-312215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 312048Z - 312215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK...WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE INCLUDING ISOLATED
TORNADOES...WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.
DISCUSSION...LINEAR CONVECTION IN SWRN TN CURRENTLY POSES MAINLY A
DAMAGING WIND RISK AS IT PROGRESSES EWD AROUND 35-40 KT. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN INTO NWRN AL IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...WITH
MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG PER RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS. A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE MCD AREA HAS
LIMITED MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN SO FAR...AND WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS PRESENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE PROSPECT FOR
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS LIMITED.
REGARDLESS...STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.
..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...
LAT...LON 35808791 36218769 36508726 36718702 37008693 37088661
36928614 36518640 35268661 35028684 35028793 35808791SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 10:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calloway, Fulton, Graves, Hickman | 3 hr |
| Mar 31, 10:58 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 14 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 31, 2:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Graves, Hopkins and 9 more | 91 min |
| Mar 31, 3:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Barren, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland and 9 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 31, 5:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Carlisle, Crittenden, Daviess, Graves and 10 more | 96 min |
| Mar 31, 5:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Barren, Boyle, Breathitt, Casey and 28 more | 56 min |
| Mar 31, 2:35 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Chester, Decatur, Fayette, Hardeman, Hardin, Henderson and 2 more | 7 hr |
| Mar 31, 5:58 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bedford, Cannon, Coffee, Franklin, Giles, Grundy and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Mar 31, 6:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Franklin, Giles, Lincoln, Moore | 53 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.