Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 314

March 31, 201634 counties in Kentucky; 13 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2016, 5:49 PM CDT for 34 counties in Kentucky; 13 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 31, 2016, 5:49 PM CDT (22:49 UTC)
Expired
Mar 31, 2016, 6:45 PM CDT
In force
56 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 47 counties

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clay County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Estill County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Green County, KY, Hart County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Russell County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Clay County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Macon County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Scott County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-03-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-03-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 673 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
834 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
673 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
836 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

046 
ACUS11 KWNS 312249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312249 
KYZ000-TNZ000-312345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MIDDLE TN...S-CNTRL/SERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71...

VALID 312249Z - 312345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 71
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY STRONG TO SVR WIND GUST THREAT WITHIN WW 71 IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LINE SEGMENT MOVING THROUGH S-CNTRL KY. THIS
THREAT MAY EXTEND SLIGHTLY E OF WW 71 INTO SERN KY...BUT DRIER AIR
ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A GENERAL REDUCTION IN TSTM
INTENSITY WITH EWD PROGRESSION.

DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS S-CNTRL KY...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG TO SVR WIND
GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE ERN EDGE OF WW
71...AND THE ACCOMPANYING WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND FARTHER E INTO
PARTS OF SERN KY. HOWEVER...RECENT SFC OBS CONFIRM DRIER AIR IS
PRESENT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S F.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIMITED BUOYANCY HERE...THE WIND THREAT SHOULD
BECOME MORE LOCALIZED WITH EWD PROGRESSION...AND A NEW DOWNSTREAM WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..ROGERS.. 03/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   37138330 36408423 35938581 36288665 36788670 37498562
            37898378 37828303 37138330

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 10:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalloway, Fulton, Graves, Hickman3 hr
Mar 31, 10:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 14 more5 hr
Mar 31, 2:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Caldwell, Calloway, Christian, Graves, Hopkins and 9 more91 min
Mar 31, 3:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLogan, Simpson, Warren87 min
Mar 31, 3:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Barren, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland and 9 more5 hr
Mar 31, 5:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Caldwell, Carlisle, Crittenden, Daviess, Graves and 10 more96 min
Mar 31, 2:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCChester, Decatur, Fayette, Hardeman, Hardin, Henderson and 2 more7 hr
Mar 31, 5:58 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBedford, Cannon, Coffee, Franklin, Giles, Grundy and 8 more7 hr
Mar 31, 6:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFranklin, Giles, Lincoln, Moore53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.