Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 70

March 31, 2016Lee County, Phillips County, Arkansas; 66 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 31, 2016, 2:35 PM CDT for Lee County, Phillips County, Arkansas; 66 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 31, 2016, 2:35 PM CDT (19:35 UTC)
Expired
Mar 31, 2016, 9:44 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 68 counties

Lee County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Adams County, MS, Alcorn County, MS, Attala County, MS, Benton County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

61 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 2:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJefferson Davis, Lawrence, Simpson47 min
Mar 31, 3:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANSimpson, Smith52 min
Mar 31, 3:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis55 min
Mar 31, 3:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCross, Lee, Phillips, St. Francis51 min
Mar 31, 3:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANWarren67 min
Mar 31, 4:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANNewton, Scott, Smith59 min
Mar 31, 4:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala38 min
Mar 31, 4:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGAlcorn, Tishomingo39 min
Mar 31, 4:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHinds, Madison53 min
Mar 31, 4:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden, Lee, St. Francis46 min
Mar 31, 4:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden, Lee42 min
Mar 31, 4:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANIssaquena, Sharkey, Warren, Yazoo70 min
Mar 31, 4:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANNeshoba, Newton31 min
Mar 31, 4:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGPhillips41 min
Mar 31, 4:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCovington31 min
Mar 31, 4:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHinds, Madison49 min
Mar 31, 5:04 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANIssaquena, Warren4 hr
Mar 31, 5:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANChoctaw, Clay, Oktibbeha, Webster69 min
Mar 31, 5:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGDeSoto, Marshall46 min
Mar 31, 5:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClaiborne, Warren60 min
Mar 31, 5:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeake, Rankin, Scott44 min
Mar 31, 5:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeake, Madison, Scott47 min
Mar 31, 5:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGBenton, DeSoto, Marshall39 min
Mar 31, 5:49 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANHinds, Madison, Rankin, Yazoo4 hr
Mar 31, 5:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCopiah, Hinds56 min
Mar 31, 5:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeake, Neshoba, Newton, Scott56 min
Mar 31, 5:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeflore40 min
Mar 31, 5:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLowndes52 min
Mar 31, 5:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGChickasaw, Monroe50 min
Mar 31, 6:03 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANBolivar, Leflore, Sunflower, Washington4 hr
Mar 31, 6:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGBenton, Marshall35 min
Mar 31, 6:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGChickasaw, Lee, Monroe, Pontotoc61 min
Mar 31, 6:17 PM CDTTornado WarningJANLowndes28 min
Mar 31, 6:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCalhoun, Chickasaw41 min
Mar 31, 6:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGItawamba66 min
Mar 31, 6:30 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANLeake, Scott4 hr
Mar 31, 6:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCalhoun, Chickasaw, Lafayette, Pontotoc, Yalobusha44 min
Mar 31, 6:33 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANCopiah, Hinds, Rankin, Simpson4 hr
Mar 31, 6:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANKemper55 min
Mar 31, 6:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANSunflower23 min
Mar 31, 6:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCoahoma, Panola, Quitman, Tallahatchie52 min
Mar 31, 6:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANRankin, Simpson50 min
Mar 31, 6:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGAlcorn, Benton, Tippah24 min
Mar 31, 6:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGMonroe46 min
Mar 31, 6:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGChickasaw, Lee, Pontotoc38 min
Mar 31, 6:57 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANNeshoba, Newton4 hr
Mar 31, 7:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANSimpson, Smith42 min
Mar 31, 7:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANSmith35 min
Mar 31, 7:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLee, Pontotoc32 min
Mar 31, 7:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGItawamba, Prentiss, Tishomingo47 min
Mar 31, 7:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGItawamba22 min
Mar 31, 7:28 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANKemper, Lauderdale4 hr
Mar 31, 7:32 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANScott, Smith4 hr
Mar 31, 7:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANKemper, Lauderdale25 min
Mar 31, 7:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLee, Prentiss, Tippah, Union55 min
Mar 31, 7:43 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANJasper, Newton4 hr
Mar 31, 7:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJasper, Smith46 min
Mar 31, 8:03 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGChickasaw, Itawamba, Lee, Monroe, Pontotoc6 hr
Mar 31, 8:10 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGPrentiss, Tippah, Union6 hr
Mar 31, 8:29 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANClarke, Lauderdale3 hr
Mar 31, 9:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANIssaquena, Warren39 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2016-03-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 866 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2016-03-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 107 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
866 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
556 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
107 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
125 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
2.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

957 
WWUS20 KWNS 311933
SEL0  
SPC WW 311933
ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-010300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 70
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
  CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
  SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE.  THE MAIN TORNADO RISK WILL BE FOCUSED CLOSER
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. 
OTHERWISE...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED...AND THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH INTO
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH A DAMAGING WIND RISK LATER THIS EVENING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 68...WW 69...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 30, 7:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton4 hr
Mar 30, 8:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton53 min
Mar 30, 8:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Lincoln and 1 more96 min
Mar 30, 10:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Union6 hr
Mar 30, 11:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChicot, Desha60 min
Mar 31, 10:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Dallas and 14 more3 hr
Mar 31, 10:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Jackson and 9 more5 hr
Mar 31, 1:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChicot2 hr
Mar 31, 2:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 7 more8 hr
Mar 31, 2:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross91 min
Mar 31, 3:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEast Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa, Washington, West Feliciana86 min
Mar 31, 3:20 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, Saint Helena, Saint Tammany and 4 more6 hr
Mar 31, 3:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee and 6 more2 hr
Mar 31, 5:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Catahoula, East Carroll, Franklin, Grant, Jackson and 9 more53 min
Mar 31, 7:47 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCovington, Forrest, Greene, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar and 3 more58 min
Mar 31, 8:43 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCGeorge, Greene, Perry, Stone5 hr
Mar 31, 4:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 55 more58 min
Mar 31, 5:58 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCWayne7 hr
Mar 31, 6:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Choctaw, Clarke, Clay and 29 more53 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2016Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.