Alert archive / Louisiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 296

March 30, 20167 counties in Arkansas; 19 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 30, 2016, 8:39 PM CDT for 7 counties in Arkansas; 19 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 30, 2016, 8:39 PM CDT (01:39 UTC)
Expired
Mar 30, 2016, 10:15 PM CDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 30 counties

Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Union County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Bolivar County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Washington County, MS

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 00:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-03-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1333 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-03-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 246 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1333 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
683 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
246 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
250 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.5
Supercell composite
10.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

671 
ACUS11 KWNS 310139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310139 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-310315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA..SERN AR...FAR WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60...63...

VALID 310139Z - 310315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 60...63...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 60 MAY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
TORNADO WATCH PRIOR TO 03Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION FOR A PERSISTENT
LONG-DURATION/LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING WITHIN A
BROADER CONVECTIVE MASS FROM THE MID-SOUTH SWWD TO NE TX. 00Z SHV
RAOB SAMPLED A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200-250 M2/S2. HOWEVER...THE
MESSY CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODE HAS GENERALLY YIELDED TRANSIENT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS TYPE OF MODE WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN REGENERATIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS. THE PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT AREA SHOULD
SHIFT SLOWLY E AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMES INCREASINGLY VEERED /A
PROCESS THAT APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY FROM THE SHV AREA WWD PER VWP
DATA/. THE COMPARATIVELY LONGEST DURATION TORNADO RISK WILL PROBABLY
BE CENTERED ALONG THE SERN PORTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE
PLUME /OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION/ INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 03/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32319413 32719384 33139295 33559234 34189146 34219116
            34079081 33559062 32969065 32529079 32109159 31859257
            31829350 31899395 32319413

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 30, 7:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton4 hr
Mar 30, 8:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton53 min
Mar 30, 10:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Union6 hr
Mar 30, 11:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChicot, Desha60 min
Mar 31, 10:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Dallas and 14 more3 hr
Mar 31, 10:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Jackson and 9 more5 hr
Mar 31, 1:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChicot2 hr
Mar 31, 2:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 7 more8 hr
Mar 31, 2:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross91 min
Mar 31, 2:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCLee, Phillips7 hr
Mar 31, 3:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEast Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa, Washington, West Feliciana86 min
Mar 31, 3:20 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, Saint Helena, Saint Tammany and 4 more6 hr
Mar 31, 3:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee and 6 more2 hr
Mar 31, 5:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Catahoula, East Carroll, Franklin, Grant, Jackson and 9 more53 min
Mar 31, 7:47 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCovington, Forrest, Greene, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar and 3 more58 min
Mar 31, 8:43 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCGeorge, Greene, Perry, Stone5 hr
Mar 31, 4:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 55 more58 min
Mar 31, 5:58 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCWayne7 hr
Mar 31, 6:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Choctaw, Clarke, Clay and 29 more53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.