Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 99

February 3, 201214 counties in Oklahoma; 6 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2012, 7:15 AM CST for 14 counties in Oklahoma; 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 3, 2012, 7:15 AM CST (13:15 UTC)
Expired
Feb 3, 2012, 8:45 AM CST
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2012-02-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 592 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2012-02-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 301 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
592 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
478 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
301 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
343 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.0
Supercell composite
5.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

263 
ACUS11 KWNS 031315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031315 
OKZ000-TXZ000-031445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN OK...SMALL PART OF NW TX...EXTREME
E-CENTRAL/SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 24...

VALID 031315Z - 031445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 24 CONTINUES.

WW HAS BEEN CLEARED OVER UNFAVORABLY COLD AIR N OF SFC OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DESCRIBED BELOW...AND MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT
CROSSING WRN PORTIONS OF WW.

1245Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
QLCS...ACROSS CNU/BVO AREAS THEN ARCHING SWWD ACROSS NRN FRINGES OKC
METRO...THEN WWD/NWD OVER CANADIAN/NRN CUSTER COUNTIES...INTO SFC
LOW LOCATED OVER ERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY.  COLD FRONT WAS DRAWN SWWD
FROM LOW ACROSS SERN TX PANHANDLE...ESSENTIALLY COLLOCATED WITH
LEADING EDGE OF BKN CONVECTIVE BAND OVER PORTIONS
WHEELER/COLLINGSWORTH/DONLEY COUNTIES.  COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SEWD
15-20 KT WITH REINFORCEMENT FROM HEAVIEST CONVECTION LOCATED JUST
BEHIND FRONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD DECELERATE/STALL DURING NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN ADVANCE OF SFC LOW.  POCKET OF
FAVORABLE AIR IS EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS SW OK AND NW TX AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...WITH MODIFIED ON RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE...AMIDST 250-450 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH.  MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR IS LACK OF CONVECTIVE FORCING S OF BOUNDARY AND E OF COLD
FRONT.  TORNADO RISK HAS BEEN RESTRICTED...SINCE EARLIER ACTIVITY E
OF FRONT DISSIPATED AND MOVE OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34520079 35669990 35929877 35699768 35149747 34059803
            34030030 34520079

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 7:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer and 13 more67 min
Feb 2, 7:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more7 hr
Feb 2, 9:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey and 11 more117 min
Feb 2, 11:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Comanche, Custer and 14 more91 min
Feb 3, 2:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 24 more60 min
Feb 3, 2:25 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more8 hr
Feb 3, 9:42 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 3 more63 min
Feb 3, 11:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson and 3 more91 min
Feb 3, 12:26 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 8 more8 hr
Feb 3, 3:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Garvin, Jefferson, Johnston, Love, Marshall and 1 more88 min
Feb 3, 5:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes and 8 more2 hr
Feb 3, 6:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJasper, Newton, Sabine, Tyler115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.