Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 95

February 2, 2012Barber County, Harper County, Kingman County, Kansas; 20 counties in Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2012, 11:44 PM CST for Barber County, Harper County, Kingman County, Kansas; 20 counties in Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2012, 11:44 PM CST (05:44 UTC)
Expired
Feb 3, 2012, 1:15 AM CST
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 40 counties

Barber County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Motley County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2012-02-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 34 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2012-02-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 217 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
34 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1011 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
217 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
316 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

040 
ACUS11 KWNS 030544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030544 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-030715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE INTO ADJACENT WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23...

VALID 030544Z - 030715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23
CONTINUES.

RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS REVEALED PERSISTENT/INCREASING
CONVECTION...WITH A BAND OF MORE INTENSE/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
EXTENDING FROM W OF PVW NEWD INTO S CENTRAL KS.  WITHIN THIS BAND OF
STORMS...A FEW CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT -- BUT
TEMPORARILY INTENSE -- ROTATION IN LOWER LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FROM
NEAR AMA NEWD INTO NWRN OK.  

WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO MOISTEN AND SHEAR IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE OF KM QUITE STRONG...THE ONGOING/LOW-END TORNADO
POTENTIAL HAS BECOME A GREATER CONCERN GIVEN THE NOTED INTENSITY OF
THESE QUASI-TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.  STILL...WITH VERY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS A BIT DECOUPLED...TORNADO THREAT STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXAMINE RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL
EVOLUTION WITHIN THIS REGION...AND ANY POSSIBLE NEED FOR UPGRADE TO
TORNADO WATCH WITHIN PARTS OF THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35229822 34349815 33820129 34300228 36030096 37139933
            37789821 36779766 35229822

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 6:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Sherman4 hr
Feb 2, 9:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Comanche117 min
Feb 3, 2:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSumner60 min
Feb 3, 3:45 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne4 hr
Feb 2, 7:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer and 13 more67 min
Feb 2, 7:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more7 hr
Feb 3, 2:25 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more8 hr
Feb 3, 7:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 8 more90 min
Feb 3, 9:42 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 3 more63 min
Feb 3, 11:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson and 3 more91 min
Feb 3, 12:26 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 8 more8 hr
Feb 3, 3:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Garvin, Jefferson, Johnston, Love, Marshall and 1 more88 min
Feb 3, 5:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes and 8 more2 hr
Feb 3, 6:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJasper, Newton, Sabine, Tyler115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.