Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 103
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2012, 3:17 PM CST for 7 counties in Oklahoma; 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 3, 2012, 3:17 PM CST (21:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 3, 2012, 4:45 PM CST
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Carter County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Murray County, OK, Clay County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Denton County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Jack County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 717 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -18 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 493 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 183 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 283 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 3.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
939
ACUS11 KWNS 032117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032117
OKZ000-TXZ000-032245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL OK THROUGH NCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...
VALID 032117Z - 032245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND SCNTRL OK. TREND HAS BEEN FOR
OVERALL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES NEXT FEW HOURS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN W-CNTRL OK SWWD THROUGH
NWRN AND SWRN TX NEAR SAN ANGELO WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
INDICATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS N-CNTRL TX AND S-CNTRL OK. WARM
FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL-SERN OK. SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 70F
SUPPORTING 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR
REMAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE...WHILE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THE LLJ TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY
FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE
IN 0-2 KM SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS. STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY
DEVELOP EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
..DIAL.. 02/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34039810 34969717 34579646 32889677 32529780 32689880
33479845 34039810SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 7:08 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer and 13 more | 67 min |
| Feb 2, 7:38 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more | 7 hr |
| Feb 2, 9:48 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey and 11 more | 117 min |
| Feb 2, 11:44 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Comanche, Custer and 14 more | 91 min |
| Feb 3, 2:00 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 24 more | 60 min |
| Feb 3, 2:25 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more | 8 hr |
| Feb 3, 7:15 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 8 more | 90 min |
| Feb 3, 9:42 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 3 more | 63 min |
| Feb 3, 11:59 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson and 3 more | 91 min |
| Feb 3, 12:26 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 8 more | 8 hr |
| Feb 3, 5:41 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 3, 6:35 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jasper, Newton, Sabine, Tyler | 115 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.