Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 103

February 3, 20127 counties in Oklahoma; 10 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2012, 3:17 PM CST for 7 counties in Oklahoma; 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 3, 2012, 3:17 PM CST (21:17 UTC)
Expired
Feb 3, 2012, 4:45 PM CST
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Carter County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Murray County, OK, Clay County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Denton County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Jack County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-02-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 717 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-02-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 183 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
717 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
493 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
183 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
283 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

939 
ACUS11 KWNS 032117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032117 
OKZ000-TXZ000-032245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL OK THROUGH NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...

VALID 032117Z - 032245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND SCNTRL OK. TREND HAS BEEN FOR
OVERALL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES NEXT FEW HOURS.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN W-CNTRL OK SWWD THROUGH
NWRN AND SWRN TX NEAR SAN ANGELO WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
INDICATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS N-CNTRL TX AND S-CNTRL OK. WARM
FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL-SERN OK. SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 70F
SUPPORTING 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR
REMAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE...WHILE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR THE LLJ TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY
FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE
IN 0-2 KM SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS. STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY
DEVELOP EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34039810 34969717 34579646 32889677 32529780 32689880
            33479845 34039810

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 7:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer and 13 more67 min
Feb 2, 7:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more7 hr
Feb 2, 9:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey and 11 more117 min
Feb 2, 11:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Comanche, Custer and 14 more91 min
Feb 3, 2:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 24 more60 min
Feb 3, 2:25 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more8 hr
Feb 3, 7:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 8 more90 min
Feb 3, 9:42 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 3 more63 min
Feb 3, 11:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson and 3 more91 min
Feb 3, 12:26 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 8 more8 hr
Feb 3, 5:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes and 8 more2 hr
Feb 3, 6:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJasper, Newton, Sabine, Tyler115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.