Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 104

February 3, 201214 counties in Oklahoma; 23 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 3, 2012, 5:41 PM CST for 14 counties in Oklahoma; 23 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 3, 2012, 5:41 PM CST (23:41 UTC)
Expired
Feb 3, 2012, 7:45 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 37 counties

Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Coal County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Murray County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Brown County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-02-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 717 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-02-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 183 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
717 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
493 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
183 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
283 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

164 
ACUS11 KWNS 032342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032341
OKZ000-TXZ000-040145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CENTRAL TX AND INTO S CENTRAL AND ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 25...

VALID 032341Z - 040145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 25 CONTINUES.

BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES ATTM ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS STILL CONFINED TO PARTS OF N
CENTRAL TX AND INTO ADJACENT S CENTRAL OK.  HERE...AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FOCUS BANDS OF STORMS -- FUELED BY AMPLE
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AND AIDED BY 0-6 KM SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

OVERALL HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING
GRADUALLY...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH TIME ACROSS THE AREA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN ANTICIPATED TREND TOWARD MORE LINEAR
ORGANIZATION.  STILL...EXPECT MARGINAL HAIL WITH STRONGER
CELLS...ALONG WITH ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

STORMS ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF THE WW CONTINUE NEARING THE ERN WATCH
BORDER.  ATTM HOWEVER...LOCAL COUNTY EXTENSIONS OF THE WATCH MAY
SUFFICE WHERE NECESSARY...AS THE NEED FOR A NEW WW ISSUANCE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO SERN OK/NERN TX REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
POTENTIALLY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   31949915 32889862 33679805 34929720 35649618 35129568
            32459617 31499890 31569925 31949915

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 7:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer and 13 more67 min
Feb 2, 7:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more7 hr
Feb 2, 9:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey and 11 more117 min
Feb 2, 11:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Comanche, Custer and 14 more91 min
Feb 3, 2:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 24 more60 min
Feb 3, 2:25 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more8 hr
Feb 3, 7:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 8 more90 min
Feb 3, 9:42 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 3 more63 min
Feb 3, 11:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson and 3 more91 min
Feb 3, 12:26 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 8 more8 hr
Feb 3, 3:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Garvin, Jefferson, Johnston, Love, Marshall and 1 more88 min
Feb 3, 6:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJasper, Newton, Sabine, Tyler115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.