Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 93

February 2, 201219 counties in Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2012, 7:08 PM CST for 19 counties in Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2012, 7:08 PM CST (01:08 UTC)
Expired
Feb 2, 2012, 8:15 PM CST
In force
67 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 35 counties

Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Baylor County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Motley County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-02-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-02-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 317 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
692 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
80 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
317 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
390 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

790 
ACUS11 KWNS 030108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030108 
OKZ000-TXZ000-030215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGION INTO
ADJACENT WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 030108Z - 030215Z

CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING ATTM ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE REGION CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING SEVERE RISK.  NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

LATEST VAD/PROFILER ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW INCREASE IN SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW FIELD ACROSS W TX/WRN OK ATTM...WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE EWD/NEWD INTO SWRN OK/SWRN KS.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY
REMAINS EVIDENT -- PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND EVENING
RAOBS...WHICH HAS ACTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THUS FAR. 
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THIS HOWEVER IS AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FLOW
FIELD WITH HEIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER SELYS VEER TO SLY AT H85...AND
THEN TO SWLY AT 50-70 KT AT H5.

OVERALL...EXPECT THREAT TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- WITH
A FEW STRONGER SUPERCELL STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LIKELY
TO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL NEAR 1" IN DIAMETER.  THREAT FOR
A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO ALSO IS EVIDENT -- PARTICULARLY IF
STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE LINEARLY...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR --
PARTICULARLY ON SERN FRINGES OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE GREATER
LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED.

..GOSS.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33260157 33890160 34980091 36369984 36669777 35279779
            33579917 33260157

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 7:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more7 hr
Feb 2, 9:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey and 11 more117 min
Feb 2, 11:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Comanche, Custer and 14 more91 min
Feb 3, 2:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 24 more60 min
Feb 3, 2:25 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 16 more8 hr
Feb 3, 7:15 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 8 more90 min
Feb 3, 9:42 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 3 more63 min
Feb 3, 11:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson and 3 more91 min
Feb 3, 12:26 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 8 more8 hr
Feb 3, 3:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Garvin, Jefferson, Johnston, Love, Marshall and 1 more88 min
Feb 3, 5:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes and 8 more2 hr
Feb 3, 6:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJasper, Newton, Sabine, Tyler115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.