Mesoscale Discussion 96

Issued

Feb 3, 2012, 2:00 AM CST (08:00 UTC)

Expired

Feb 3, 2012, 3:00 AM CST

In force

60 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 24Feb 3, 2:25 AM CST

769 
ACUS11 KWNS 030801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030800
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-030900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN TX PANHANDLE...TX
SOUTH-PLAINS...NW TX...MAIN BODY OF OK EXCEPT ERN PORTIONS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23...

VALID 030800Z - 030900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23
CONTINUES.

WW WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 09Z EXPIRATION.
 CURRENT THINKING IS SMALL TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
SERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK...WITH SVR TSTM WW POSSIBLY NEEDED
LATER AND FARTHER NE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN OK.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH BOWING CONVECTION
OVER CANADIAN COUNTY TX...AS OF 730Z...COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SWRN
TX PANHANDLE TO SERN NM.  BKN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND
INTERMITTENT SUPERCELLS WAS EVIDENT FROM GRAY COUNTY TX NEWD ACROSS
NWRN OK TO ICT AREA.  SRN PORTION OF MCS HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING LESS
THAN TRANSLATING...FOR NET NEWD SHIFT AWAY FROM SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.
 THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH SOME TENDENCY FOR EWD/FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG
COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW.  WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO ARE EVIDENT AHEAD
OF BOUNDARY IN MOIST SECTOR...MOVING NNEWD ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS
PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL AND NRN OK.  MAIN CONCERN ATTM IS EXTENT OF
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW...GIVEN PRESENCE OF VERY SHALLOW NEAR-SFC
STABLE LAYER...OFFSET BY THETAE ADVECTION.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS BECOME
MORE ELEVATED WITH NEWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS REGION...IN MATCHING
REGIME OF GRADUAL SFC COOLING.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEEN
ENLARGED FAVORABLY BY BROAD/SLY/40-50 KT LLJ.  FOR THOSE AREAS WITH
SFC-BASED PARCELS...EFFECTIVE SRH 300-500 J/KG IS EVIDENT...ALONG
WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST
MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES WITH
ACCESS TO MOIST SECTOR...OR RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CELLS
AHEAD OF LINE.

..EDWARDS.. 02/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34260200 35690041 36629866 37329791 37129689 36419663
            35539684 34679756 34059862 33780075 33890152 34260200

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.