Tornado Warning 115, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 161128
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
628 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

MOC167-161130-
/O.CAN.KSGF.TO.W.0115.000000T0000Z-090616T1145Z/
POLK MO-
628 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR POLK COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN POLK 
COUNTY. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3778 9320 3773 9320 3773 9318 3750 9318
      3756 9362 3774 9362 3775 9364 3781 9363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1120Z 284DEG 43KT 3759 9321

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
DEAL WITH ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND HOW
LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE SEVERE EARLY
IN THE EVENING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA PUSHING ON TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI ALONG THE 925 TO 850MB THETA E GRADIENT.
LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MLCIN IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...SO THESE STORMS HAVE LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED IN
NATURE. WITH MODEST MU-CAPE OVER THE AREA...ELEVATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAILERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL...AND WITH THESE STORMS
TRACKING ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT...FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS LOW WATER
CROSSING AND FLOOD PRONE AREA IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW...AND IF THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGAN TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL THIS
CAP WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT HAVE KEEP SLIGHT POPS GOING ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND FOR THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...IN CASE THE CAP IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN. IF THE CAP DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FEELING NOW IS THIS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA. TONIGHT AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE GREEN AND MOIST GROUNDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING OUT OF THE MIDDLE 90S.
IT USUALLY TAKES BROWN GROUNDS TO GET TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S AND 100S...THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS BUT WITH THE MOIST
GROUNDS HAVE UNDER CUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THIS MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL
RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. A STRONG
CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SOME OVER THE AREA...AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE CAP AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
WILL NEED TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DETERMINE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY HAPPENING
NORTH OF THE AERODROMES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 09Z...THOUGH THE IMPACT ON CIG/VIS WILL ONLY BE IN SHORT
INCREMENTS AND LIKELY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WILL OCCURRING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
513 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
  AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR...AND
  ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG KANSAS...TO
  BOLIVAR...LEBANON AND SALEM IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
  MISSOURI THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
  PUMP VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA...AND ABOVE A WARM FRONT
  DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE
  ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
  CONTINUE THIS MORNING. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE SEVERE THREAT VERY
  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
  FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
 MISSOURI THROUGH 8 AM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 W COLE CAMP          38.46N  93.39W
06/16/2009                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A WATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS WAS REPORTED ON HIGHWAY E 2
            MILES SOUTH OF WINDSOR. NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS THE
            NORTHERN HALF OF BENTON COUNTY WERE ALSO REPORTED TO
            HAVE WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
440 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 AM     HAIL             APPLETON CITY           38.19N  94.03W
06/16/2009  E1.75 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     TSTM WND GST     APPLETON CITY           38.19N  94.03W
06/16/2009  E70 MPH          ST. CLAIR          MO   PUBLIC

            OAK TREE LIMBS UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER SNAPPED.

0450 AM     HAIL             APPLETON CITY           38.19N  94.03W
06/16/2009  E1.00 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   PUBLIC

            OAK TREE LIMBS UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER SNAPPED.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
518 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 AM     HAIL             ICONIUM                 38.11N  93.54W
06/16/2009  E0.75 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FORT SCOTT              37.84N  94.71W
06/16/2009  M2.29 INCH       BOURBON            KS   AWOS

            RAINFALL MEASURED DURING THE LAST HOUR.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E LOWRY CITY          38.14N  93.63W
06/16/2009                   ST. CLAIR          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY C EAST OF LOWRY CITY

&&

WISE