Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
849 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD IN FROM KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR AHEAD OF AN EJECTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION
HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRYING TO CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR
MODE...HOWEVER DISCREET CELLS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX. THERE HAS BEEN A RICH
HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND
GIVEN MLCAPE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL SUSTAINED.

WHILE THE PREDOMINATE STORM MODE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO
LINEAR...I AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT DISCREET CELLS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX. WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS CONVECTION QUITE CLOSELY AS DISCREET CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.

TIMING...AS OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HAS THIS COMPLEX ENTERING
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER 11 PM.
THE SPC HAS INCREASED THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO MODERATE FOR OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
IN DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH THE ACCELERATING LINEAR COMPLEX.

NOT TO BE OVERSHADOWED IS THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING THREE INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSE CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN TH LOWER 70S WERE YIELDING SURFACE BASED
CAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WHERE 850-700
MB TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED.

THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES THAT WILL PUSH EAST WITHIN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTAINED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAKES IT
WAY ACROSS THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
IN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS UNCERTAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK WITH THE
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTH. THIS WILL BRING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE.

MODELS DEPICT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND AND FLATTENING
THE RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS AS
THEY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR VIS/CIG POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST DOWNPOURS. TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BATCH OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AERODROMES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
911 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-170215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
911 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
  LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  AFTER 11 PM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
  ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA AS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
  KANSAS MOVES EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

  DISCUSSION:

  AFTER 11 PM...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KANSAS
  WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND ACCELERATE TO THE EAST
  INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BY MIDNIGHT THIS LINE WILL BE
  NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS STATE LINE...WITH THE SYSTEM STEADILY
  MOVING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
  MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...THOUGH AN
  ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE AREA AT HIGHEST RISK
  FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
  PITTSBURG KANSAS TO GREENFIELD...BOLIVAR...AND THE LAKE OF THE
  OZARKS IN MISSOURI.

  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
  THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE
  THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
  MISSOURI...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR.
  IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL...TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
  WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
  TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
  SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
  OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 AM     TSTM WND GST     HERMITAGE               37.94N  93.32W
06/16/2009  E60 MPH          HICKORY            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VERSAILLES              38.43N 92.84W
06/16/2009                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1231 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAVOIS MILLS           38.31N 92.83W
06/16/2009                   MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E STOVER              38.44N 92.94W
06/16/2009                   MORGAN             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN BETWEEN STOVER AND VERSAILES ESTIMATED 70 MPH

&&

LDOOLEY