River Flood Warning 42, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
DEAL WITH ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND HOW
LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE SEVERE EARLY
IN THE EVENING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA PUSHING ON TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI ALONG THE 925 TO 850MB THETA E GRADIENT.
LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MLCIN IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...SO THESE STORMS HAVE LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED IN
NATURE. WITH MODEST MU-CAPE OVER THE AREA...ELEVATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAILERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL...AND WITH THESE STORMS
TRACKING ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT...FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS LOW WATER
CROSSING AND FLOOD PRONE AREA IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW...AND IF THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGAN TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL THIS
CAP WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT HAVE KEEP SLIGHT POPS GOING ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND FOR THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...IN CASE THE CAP IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN. IF THE CAP DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FEELING NOW IS THIS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA. TONIGHT AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE GREEN AND MOIST GROUNDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING OUT OF THE MIDDLE 90S.
IT USUALLY TAKES BROWN GROUNDS TO GET TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S AND 100S...THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS BUT WITH THE MOIST
GROUNDS HAVE UNDER CUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THIS MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL
RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. A STRONG
CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SOME OVER THE AREA...AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE CAP AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
WILL NEED TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DETERMINE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF KJLN TAFS...A LINE OF ON GOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. WEST NORTHWEST
WIND GUST OVER 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
QUICKLY BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171300-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
751 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A ROLLA...TO HOUSTON...TO AVA
  MISSOURI LINE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST ACROSS
  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
  THIS LINE IS WEAKENING...HOW A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
  WITH THIS LINE AS IT PUSHES EAST THIS MORNING. IN ADDITIONAL TO
  THE SEVERE THREAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR...WHICH
  WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. RESIDUAL FLOODING FROM
  LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR
  THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH
  MID MORNING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E ROCKY MOUNT         38.27N  92.70W
06/16/2009                   MORGAN             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE Z AT BLUE SPRINGS CREEK CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
904 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E STOUTLAND           37.81N  92.42W
06/16/2009                   LACLEDE            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE FF AT BEAR CREEK CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
913 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FARLINGTON              37.62N 94.83W
06/16/2009                   CRAWFORD           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SOME WATER ACROSS HWY 277

&&

WD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW MARSHFIELD         37.38N  92.96W
06/16/2009                   WEBSTER            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE 38 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER NEAR THE NORTH
            FORK OF THE POMME DE TERRE RIVER.

&&

HATCH