Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 160528
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

MOC131-160630-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-090616T0630Z/
MILLER MO-
1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR MILLER COUNTY...

AT 1227 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN MILLER COUNTY...MOVING EAST 
AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ELDON BY 1240 AM CDT.
  LAKELAND AND LAKE OZARK BY 1245 AM CDT.
  IBERIA BY 110 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF OLEAN...LAKEVIEW...BAGNELL...AURORA SPRINGS...KAISER...
ETTERVILLE...BRUMLEY...TUSCUMBIA...ULMAN AND MARYS HOME ARE IN THE
PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9240 3833 9219 3802 9219
      3802 9249 3806 9258 3817 9261 3817 9264
      3821 9265 3822 9270 3834 9270 3835 9264
      3844 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 272DEG 39KT 3847 9272 3820 9287

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 160548 RRA
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

MOC131-160630-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-090616T0630Z/
MILLER MO-
1248 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR MILLER COUNTY...

AT 1248 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ETTERVILLE TO
KAISER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  IBERIA BY 115 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF TUSCUMBIA...ULMAN...MARYS HOME...BRUMLEY AND SAINT
ELIZABETH ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9240 3833 9219 3802 9219
      3802 9249 3806 9258 3817 9261 3817 9264
      3821 9265 3822 9270 3834 9270 3835 9264
      3844 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0549Z 293DEG 36KT 3835 9248 3809 9263

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 160618
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

MOC131-160629-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-090616T0630Z/
MILLER MO-
118 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MILLER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WERE NO
LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9240 3833 9219 3802 9219
      3802 9249 3806 9258 3817 9261 3817 9264
      3821 9265 3822 9270 3834 9270 3835 9264
      3844 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0619Z 293DEG 36KT 3823 9213 3797 9228

$$

CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
849 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD IN FROM KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS KANSAS AT THIS
HOUR AHEAD OF AN EJECTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION
HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRYING TO CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR
MODE...HOWEVER DISCREET CELLS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX. THERE HAS BEEN A RICH
HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND
GIVEN MLCAPE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL SUSTAINED.

WHILE THE PREDOMINATE STORM MODE SHOULD TRANSITION MORE TO
LINEAR...I AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT DISCREET CELLS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX. WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS CONVECTION QUITE CLOSELY AS DISCREET CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.

TIMING...AS OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HAS THIS COMPLEX ENTERING
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES AROUND OR JUST AFTER 11 PM.
THE SPC HAS INCREASED THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO MODERATE FOR OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
IN DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WITH THE ACCELERATING LINEAR COMPLEX.

NOT TO BE OVERSHADOWED IS THE RISK FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WITH
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING THREE INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSE CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN TH LOWER 70S WERE YIELDING SURFACE BASED
CAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WHERE 850-700
MB TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED.

THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES THAT WILL PUSH EAST WITHIN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTAINED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAKES IT
WAY ACROSS THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
IN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS UNCERTAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK WITH THE
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTH. THIS WILL BRING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE.

MODELS DEPICT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND AND FLATTENING
THE RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS AS
THEY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR VIS/CIG POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST DOWNPOURS. TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BATCH OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AERODROMES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
911 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-170215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
911 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
  LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  AFTER 11 PM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
  ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA AS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
  KANSAS MOVES EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

  DISCUSSION:

  AFTER 11 PM...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KANSAS
  WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND ACCELERATE TO THE EAST
  INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BY MIDNIGHT THIS LINE WILL BE
  NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS STATE LINE...WITH THE SYSTEM STEADILY
  MOVING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
  MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...THOUGH AN
  ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE AREA AT HIGHEST RISK
  FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
  PITTSBURG KANSAS TO GREENFIELD...BOLIVAR...AND THE LAKE OF THE
  OZARKS IN MISSOURI.

  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
  THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE
  THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
  MISSOURI...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR.
  IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL...TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
  WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
  TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
  SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
  OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIVERTON                37.07N 94.70W
06/15/2009                   CHEROKEE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN IN THE TOWN OF RIVERTON.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
804 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             3 W TECUMSEH            36.59N  92.34W
06/15/2009  E1.25 INCH       OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            GENERAL STORE RECEIVED HALF DOLLAR HAIL

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
824 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             BAKERSFIELD             36.52N  92.14W
06/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       OZARK              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NICKLE HAIL AT FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1059 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     TSTM WND GST     HAMMOND                 37.94N  94.69W
06/15/2009  E50 MPH          BOURBON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1101 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N FORT SCOTT          37.96N  94.71W
06/15/2009  E55 MPH          BOURBON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 45 TO 55 MPH WIND

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     TSTM WND GST     ICONIUM                 38.11N  93.54W
06/15/2009  E60 MPH          ST. CLAIR          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS

&&

LD