Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
DEAL WITH ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND HOW
LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE SEVERE EARLY
IN THE EVENING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA PUSHING ON TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI ALONG THE 925 TO 850MB THETA E GRADIENT.
LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MLCIN IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...SO THESE STORMS HAVE LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED IN
NATURE. WITH MODEST MU-CAPE OVER THE AREA...ELEVATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAILERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL...AND WITH THESE STORMS
TRACKING ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT...FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS LOW WATER
CROSSING AND FLOOD PRONE AREA IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW...AND IF THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGAN TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL THIS
CAP WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT HAVE KEEP SLIGHT POPS GOING ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND FOR THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...IN CASE THE CAP IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN. IF THE CAP DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FEELING NOW IS THIS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA. TONIGHT AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE GREEN AND MOIST GROUNDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING OUT OF THE MIDDLE 90S.
IT USUALLY TAKES BROWN GROUNDS TO GET TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S AND 100S...THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS BUT WITH THE MOIST
GROUNDS HAVE UNDER CUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THIS MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL
RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. A STRONG
CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SOME OVER THE AREA...AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE CAP AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
WILL NEED TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DETERMINE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF KJLN TAFS...A LINE OF ON GOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. WEST NORTHWEST
WIND GUST OVER 35KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
QUICKLY BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
513 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
  AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR...AND
  ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG KANSAS...TO
  BOLIVAR...LEBANON AND SALEM IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
  MISSOURI THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
  PUMP VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA...AND ABOVE A WARM FRONT
  DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE
  ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
  CONTINUE THIS MORNING. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE SEVERE THREAT VERY
  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
  FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
 MISSOURI THROUGH 8 AM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
720 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
06/16/2009                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INTERSECTIONS OF COMMERCIAL AND GLENSTONE AND COMMERCIAL
            AND NATIONAL FLOODED.

&&

SRUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
724 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAVOIS MILLS           38.31N 92.83W
06/16/2009  M5.12 INCH       MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

SRUNNELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
732 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

MOZ058-071-082-083-097-098-161315-
SHANNON MO-TEXAS MO-PHELPS MO-MARIES MO-DENT MO-HOWELL MO-
732 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DENT...EASTERN MARIES...NORTHERN
HOWELL...PHELPS...TEXAS AND WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM
CDT...

AT 731 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ST. JAMES TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LICKING TO NORWOOD...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROLLA TO 15 MILES NORTH OF
HOUSTON TO 7 MILES WEST OF MOUNTAIN GROVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

PEOPLE IN DENT...EASTERN MARIES...NORTHERN HOWELL...PHELPS...TEXAS
AND WESTERN SHANNON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
735 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N WHEATLAND           37.99N  93.40W
06/16/2009                   HICKORY            MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
746 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S HERMITAGE           37.87N  93.32W
06/16/2009                   HICKORY            MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN...SOME BLOCKING
            ROADS...AROUND POMME DE TERRE DAM.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
747 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HERMITAGE               37.94N  93.32W
06/16/2009                   HICKORY            MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF ROADS UNDER WATER AND IMPASSABLE IN
            THE COUNTY.

&&

HATCH