Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
DEAL WITH ON GOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND HOW
LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE SEVERE EARLY
IN THE EVENING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA PUSHING ON TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI ALONG THE 925 TO 850MB THETA E GRADIENT.
LATEST LAPS DATA IS SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MLCIN IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...SO THESE STORMS HAVE LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED IN
NATURE. WITH MODEST MU-CAPE OVER THE AREA...ELEVATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAILERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL...AND WITH THESE STORMS
TRACKING ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT...FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS LOW WATER
CROSSING AND FLOOD PRONE AREA IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW...AND IF THE SUN CAN BREAK OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGAN TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA...LIKELY RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL THIS
CAP WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT HAVE KEEP SLIGHT POPS GOING ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND FOR THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...IN CASE THE CAP IS SLOWER TO
BUILD IN. IF THE CAP DOES NOT MOVE OVER THE AREA...THERE COULD BE
A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FEELING NOW IS THIS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA. TONIGHT AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...BUT
IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND A WARM AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AREA WIDE. THE GREEN AND MOIST GROUNDS
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING OUT OF THE MIDDLE 90S.
IT USUALLY TAKES BROWN GROUNDS TO GET TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S AND 100S...THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS BUT WITH THE MOIST
GROUNDS HAVE UNDER CUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THIS MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL
RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. A STRONG
CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SOME OVER THE AREA...AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE CAP AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
WILL NEED TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND
SMALL SCALE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO DETERMINE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY HAPPENING
NORTH OF THE AERODROMES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 09Z...THOUGH THE IMPACT ON CIG/VIS WILL ONLY BE IN SHORT
INCREMENTS AND LIKELY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WILL OCCURRING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
122 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 WSW FRISTOE           38.07N 93.41W
06/16/2009                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY EE FLOODED

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
123 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COLE CAMP               38.46N 93.20W
06/16/2009                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY B IN COLE CAMP FLOODED

&&

LDOOLEY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     TSTM WND DMG     COLE CAMP               38.46N 93.20W
06/16/2009                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 52...HICKORY ST...OAK ST.

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 W COLE CAMP          38.46N  93.39W
06/16/2009                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A WATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS WAS REPORTED ON HIGHWAY E 2
            MILES SOUTH OF WINDSOR. NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS THE
            NORTHERN HALF OF BENTON COUNTY WERE ALSO REPORTED TO
            HAVE WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
440 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 AM     HAIL             APPLETON CITY           38.19N  94.03W
06/16/2009  E1.75 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HATCH