Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 160627
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

MOC091-160638-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-090616T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOWELL MO-
127 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOWELL
COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3662 9212 3662 9197 3649 9186 3649 9212

$$

CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

A WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 3500 J/KG IN THIS AREA...STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE
SEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST 800 PM.
OVERALL...A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CONVECTION
FREE...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SUPPORT IN THE VERY SHORT TERM
WILL BE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...REACHING
BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE BRANSON AREA. RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT AND
LARGE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSE CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN TH LOWER 70S WERE YIELDING SURFACE BASED
CAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WHERE 850-700
MB TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED.

THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES THAT WILL PUSH EAST WITHIN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTAINED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAKES IT
WAY ACROSS THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
IN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS UNCERTAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK WITH THE
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTH. THIS WILL BRING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE.

MODELS DEPICT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND AND FLATTENING
THE RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS AS
THEY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR VIS/CIG POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST DOWNPOURS. TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BATCH OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AERODROMES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-170100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
751 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
  LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...THOUGH ISOLATED
 STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE.

 AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
 ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA AS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
 KANSAS MOVES EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
 MISSOURI.

  DISCUSSION:

  THIS EVENING...A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
  60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
  OUT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS STATE
  LINE.

  OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KANSAS WILL
  CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND ACCELERATE TO THE EAST. BY
  MIDNIGHT THIS LINE WILL BE APPROACHING THE MISSOURI KANSAS STATE
  LINE...WITH THE SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
  WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING
  WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY
  RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO
  FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
  TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
  AT THIS TIME.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
  NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
712 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             WASOLA                  36.79N 92.58W
06/15/2009  E1.75 INCH       OZARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
720 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HAIL             GAINESVILLE             36.60N  92.43W
06/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       OZARK              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTED PENNY HAIL IN GAINSVILLE

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
758 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     12 ESE ALTON            36.63N 91.20W
06/15/2009                   OREGON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A BRIEF FUNNEL WAS REPORTED JUST WEST OF RIVERTON.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIVERTON                37.07N 94.70W
06/15/2009                   CHEROKEE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN IN THE TOWN OF RIVERTON.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
804 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             3 W TECUMSEH            36.59N  92.34W
06/15/2009  E1.25 INCH       OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            GENERAL STORE RECEIVED HALF DOLLAR HAIL

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
824 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             BAKERSFIELD             36.52N  92.14W
06/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       OZARK              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NICKLE HAIL AT FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

LD