Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

A WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 3500 J/KG IN THIS AREA...STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE
SEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST 800 PM.
OVERALL...A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CONVECTION
FREE...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SUPPORT IN THE VERY SHORT TERM
WILL BE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...REACHING
BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE BRANSON AREA. RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT AND
LARGE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSE CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN TH LOWER 70S WERE YIELDING SURFACE BASED
CAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG. DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WHERE 850-700
MB TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED.

THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES THAT WILL PUSH EAST WITHIN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTAINED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAKES IT
WAY ACROSS THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
IN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS UNCERTAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK WITH THE
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTH. THIS WILL BRING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE.

MODELS DEPICT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND AND FLATTENING
THE RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING THE
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS AS
THEY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH IFR VIS/CIG POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST DOWNPOURS. TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE REFINED...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BATCH OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AERODROMES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
  FLOODING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THIS AFTERNOON...AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...PRIMARILY
  NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO WEST PLAINS.

  AFTER 6 PM...AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI. CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND MOVE
  ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

  DISCUSSION:

  EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE SURFACE
  WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEVADA TO EMINENCE WILL LIKELY TURN
  SEVERE QUICKLY WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE INSTABILITY. GOLF BALL
  SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

  LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...REDEVELOPMENT OF
  STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN
  KANSAS. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN
  THIS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN
  PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF GOLF BALLS....DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
  BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX
  OF STORMS AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
  MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN
  BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
  MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS
  TIME.

  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE LOW LEVELS...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

KARDELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

MOZ105-152345-
OZARK MO-
608 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES WEST OF GAINESVILLE...OR 20 MILES SOUTH
OF AVA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN OZARK
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF THORNFIELD AND NOBLE.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             NOBLE                   36.75N  92.57W
06/15/2009  E2.00 INCH       OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            2 INCH HAIL IN NOBLE

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
705 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             6 SE SQUIRES            36.79N  92.55W
06/15/2009  E1.25 INCH       OZARK              MO   PUBLIC

            1.25 INCH HAIL REPORTED AT HILO RIDGE

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
707 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             5 NE GAINESVILLE        36.65N  92.36W
06/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       OZARK              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER HAIL REPORTED

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
712 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             WASOLA                  36.79N 92.58W
06/15/2009  E1.75 INCH       OZARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
720 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HAIL             GAINESVILLE             36.60N  92.43W
06/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       OZARK              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTED PENNY HAIL IN GAINSVILLE

&&

LD