Tornadoes · United States · Arkansas · 2003

F1 tornado, Judsonia to Ingleside, Arkansas, May 16, 2003

Name: F1 tornado, Judsonia to Ingleside, Arkansas, May 16, 2003
Start: 2003-05-16T22:20:00.000Z
Location: Judsonia to Ingleside, Arkansas

From Judsonia to Ingleside, this F1 tornado ran 4.5 miles across White and Jackson counties on May 16, 2003, touching down at 5:20 PM CDT and reaching 100 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

F040 to 72 mph
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
F173 to 112 mphthis tornado
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
F2113 to 157 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
F3158 to 206 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
F4207 to 260 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
F5261 to 318 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating: F1
Date: May 16, 2003
Touchdown: 5:20 PM CDT (22:20 UTC)
Path length: 4.5 miles (7.2 km)
Path width: 100 yards (91 m)
Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Counties: White and Jackson counties
Touchdown point: 35.430, -91.580
Lift-off point: 35.430, -91.520
Record number: 358

What the Weather Service recorded

A weak tornado touched down in central White County about one half mile north of Judsonia. The tornado remained on the ground for about 5.5 miles before lifting about one half mile southeast of Bald Knob. Damage consisted of a number of large trees blown down. The roofs of several houses were damaged, mainly from falling trees, and shingles were removed from additional roofs.

A weak tornado touched down over northern White County about 1 mile north of Velvet Ridge near Highway 167. Several homes suffered roof damage, mostly due to shingles being blown off or pieces of metal roofing being removed. A number of large trees were also blown down. The tornado continued to track to the northeast into Jackson County.

A weak tornado moved from White County into Jackson County about 3 miles south-southeast of Denmark. The tornado downed a number of large trees and power poles. Several homes and businesses suffered roof damage, mainly from falling trees. The tornado dissipated about 5 miles southeast of Denmark.

A strong tornado was spawned near Bradford and moved to the northeast. The tornado downed a number of trees which fell on residences in and near town. Some of the trees were quite old, and were likely at least 100 years old. The tornado tracked to about 1 mile north-northwest of town before heading into Jackson County.

A strong tornado moved out of White County just north of Bradford into Jackson County about 8 miles southwest of Ingleside. The tornado caused mostly tree damage, with trees either downed, snapped or twisted. The roofs of a few residences were also damaged. The tornado dissipated around 5.5 miles west of Ingleside near the Possum Grape community.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

38 minutes of warning. NWS LZK issued a tornado warning for this county at 21:42 UTC, 38 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 22:40 UTC.

Issued (UTC)	Expired	Product	Office
18:20 UTC	19:05 UTC	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK
19:02 UTC	19:50 UTC	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK
19:17 UTC	19:50 UTC	Tornado Warning	LZK
21:19 UTC	22:20 UTC	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK
21:42 UTC	22:40 UTC	Tornado Warning	LZK
22:03 UTC	23:00 UTC	Tornado Warning	LZK
22:25 UTC	01:20 UTC	Flash Flood Warning	LZK
23:10 UTC	23:45 UTC	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK
23:46 UTC	00:45 UTC	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK
01:13 UTC	02:00 UTC	Tornado Warning	LZK
01:17 UTC	04:15 UTC	Flash Flood Warning	LZK
04:07 UTC	06:00 UTC	Flash Flood Warning	LZK

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Moderate Risk, with a 0.15 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 19:52 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at May 16, 2:57 PM CDT, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 2:57 PM CDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA.

WITH 3 TO 4 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS...SATURATED GROUND...AND
MORE RAIN TO COME TONIGHT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS AND NOT MOVING MUCH. THE
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL LOWS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES
RANGED FROM -1 TO -8 WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN OKLAHOMA PASSES BY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXIT EAST ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE QUIETER DAYS WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.LZK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ZONES
ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047...
ARZ052>057...ARZ062>069.

51

Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 4:30 AM CDT, 12 hours 50 minutes before

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
IS STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AND STALL ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. THIS
WILL ALLOW VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO FLOW INTO THE
ENTIRE STATE. THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF
THIS ADVANCING LOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...IT WILL ACT ON THIS TROPICAL AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE
WEATHER A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY MORNING OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE. ALL OF
ARKANSAS IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS UNDER A MODERATE RISK. THE MODERATE RISK EXTENDS
WEST OF A CAMDEN TO BENTON TO CLARKSVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE BUT
ANYWHERE IN ARKANSAS IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEVERE WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. ONCE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED....A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATURAL STATE. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...THIS MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...BECOMING
WEAKER AS IT DOES. RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING
BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LOW BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE EARLY IN THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

56

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 16, 2:26 PM CDT, 2 hours 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0216 PM    SEARCY                    AR   75 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
05/16/03   WHITE                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER

28

Local storm report, May 16, 3:00 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0254 PM    BRADFORD                  AR   .75 INCH HAIL
05/16/03   WHITE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

28

Local storm report, May 16, 3:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
347 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    BRADFORD                  AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   WHITE                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

0245 PM    BRADFORD                  AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/16/03   WHITE                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0305 PM    4 SW INGLESIDE            AR   TORNADO
05/16/03   JACKSON                        PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO
                                          SOUTH OF THE WHITE RIVER
                                          BRIDGE OFF U.S. 67. THIS IS
                                          UNCONFIRMED

0305 PM    SIMS                      AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   MONTGOMERY                     TWO CREEKS FLOODING A
                                          ROAD. 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN
                                          LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALSO
                                          4.29 INCHES OF RAIN IN LAST
                                          1 TO 2 HOURS AT HOG JAW.
                                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR AND SPOTTER

0310 PM    CASA                      AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   PERRY                          TREES DOWN AND BUTANE TANK
                                          OVERTURNED. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0312 PM    ODEN                      AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   MONTGOMERY                     4.29 INCHES OF RAIN IN
                                          LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. REPORTED
                                          BY STORM SPOTTER

0318 PM    SIMS                      AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   MONTGOMERY                     HIGHWAY 88 FLOODED JUST
                                          EAST OF SIMS. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

0337 PM    MORRILTON                 AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   CONWAY                         SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER
                                          OVER HIGHWAY 95 A COUPLE OF
                                          PLACES NEAR MORRILTON.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER

28

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), 12:00Z

10.3 hours before the tornado, 160 km from the path. May 16, 2003.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1736 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -60 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 1238 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 734 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 222 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 4.7
0-3 km lapse rate: 3.5 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Searcy Municipal Airport (M07) (SRC), 30 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)	Temp (°F)	Dew point (°F)	Wind	Gust (kt)	Pressure (mb)	Weather
20:27 UTC	75.2	69.8	100° 13 kt		1006.1
20:39 UTC	75.2	69.8	90° 14 kt	20	1005.8	TS
20:53 UTC	75	70	90° 14 kt	21	1005.4	TS
21:20 UTC	73.4	69.8	100° 19 kt	26	1003.4	+TSRA BR
21:31 UTC	73.4	69.8	100° 22 kt	35	1003	TSRA BR
21:44 UTC	73.4	69.8	90° 12 kt	25	1002.7	+TSRA BR
21:53 UTC	73	70	230° 15 kt	25	1005.4	TSRA BR
21:57 UTC	73.4	71.6	250° 8 kt	25	1004.7	-TSRA BR
22:03 UTC	73.4	71.6	260° 8 kt		1005.8	-TSRA
22:11 UTC	71.6	69.8	310° 22 kt	33	1006.8	+TSRA BR
22:18 UTC	69.8	66.2	320° 26 kt	47	1006.4	+TSRA SQ FG
22:25 UTC	68	64.4	330° 15 kt	33	1006.1	+TSRA FG
22:36 UTC	68	64.4	350° 15 kt	27	1006.1	+TSRA BR
22:43 UTC	68	66.2	320° 10 kt		1006.4	TSRA BR
22:53 UTC	67	66	50° 6 kt		1006.8	+TSRA BR
22:59 UTC	66.2	66.2	60° 8 kt		1006.8	-TSRA BR
23:06 UTC	68	66.2	50° 8 kt		1006.8	TSRA BR
23:13 UTC	68	66.2	50° 7 kt		1006.1	-TSRA
23:38 UTC	68	64.4	40° 10 kt		1006.4	+TSRA BR
23:44 UTC	66.2	64.4	100° 9 kt		1006.8	+TSRA BR
23:53 UTC	67	64	90° 10 kt		1006.4	TSRA BR
00:01 UTC	66.2	64.4	70° 8 kt		1006.8	+TSRA BR
00:13 UTC	66.2	64.4	80° 7 kt		1006.8	+TSRA BR

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

This ground now

The live radar over the track Every 2003 tornado in Arkansas Every tornado in Arkansas since 1950 Warnings in force in Arkansas now The forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of May 16, 2003

41 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Date	Time	Rating	Where	Path (mi)	Width (yd)	Injuries	Damage
May 16	3:53 AM CDT	F1	Lincoln, OK	2.3	20		$10,000
May 16	5:41 AM CDT	F1	Delaware, OK	3.2	200	2	$1.0 million
May 16	1:05 PM CDT	F1	Lincoln, OK	4.9	40		$20,000
May 16	1:08 PM CDT	F0	Kingfisher, OK	0.3	30
May 16	1:15 PM CDT	F0	Lincoln, OK	0.3	20
May 16	1:20 PM CDT	F0	Lincoln, OK	0.3	20
May 16	1:30 PM CDT	F0	Kingfisher, OK	0.3	20
May 16	1:40 PM CDT	F1	Okmulgee, OK	3.0	100		$100,000
May 16	2:08 PM CDT	F0	Okmulgee, OK	1.0	25		$20,000
May 16	2:10 PM CDT	F0	Lincoln, OK	0.3	20
May 16	2:15 PM CDT	F0	McIntosh, OK	0.5	25
May 16	2:20 PM CDT	F0	Payne, OK	0.4	25
May 16	2:46 PM CDT	F0	Yell, AR	3.0	30
May 16	2:47 PM CDT	F1	Jackson, AR	5.0	100
May 16	3:08 PM CDT	F1	Jackson, AR	17.0	100
May 16	3:22 PM CDT	F0	Haskell, OK	2.0	40	1	$30,000
May 16	3:43 PM CDT	F1	Haskell, OK	3.0	70		$150,000
May 16	4:06 PM CDT	F1	Faulkner, AR	7.0	100
May 16	4:17 PM CDT	F1	Faulkner, AR	5.0	75
May 16	4:20 PM CDT	F1	Perry, AR	2.4	75
May 16	4:23 PM CDT	F0	Perry, AR	2.3	30
May 16	4:25 PM CDT	F1	Faulkner, AR	6.0	100
May 16	4:31 PM CDT	F0	Perry, AR	1.3	25
May 16	4:35 PM CDT	F1	White, AR	4.5	100
May 16	4:43 PM CDT	F2	White, AR	5.0	150
May 16	4:45 PM CDT	F0	Sebastian, AR	0.2	25
May 16	4:47 PM CDT	F1	Cleburne, AR	10.0	50
May 16	5:01 PM CDT	F0	Logan, AR	3.8	25
May 16	5:06 PM CDT	F1	White, AR	5.5	80
May 16	5:29 PM CDT	F2	White, AR	5.0	150
May 16	5:58 PM CDT	F1	Jackson, AR	16.0	100
May 16	6:14 PM CDT	F1	Yell, AR	3.4	60
May 16	6:27 PM CDT	F0	Yell, AR	2.2	30
May 16	6:39 PM CDT	F2	Saline, AR	4.7	150
May 16	6:40 PM CDT	F1	Poinsett, AR	5.0	100		$50,000
May 16	6:40 PM CDT	F0	Garland, AR	3.5	30
May 16	7:10 PM CDT	F1	Dallas, AR	16.0	100
May 16	7:24 PM CDT	F0	Pulaski, AR	4.7	25
May 16	7:35 PM CDT	F0	Pulaski, AR	8.2	50
May 16	8:32 PM CDT	F2	Dallas, AR	25.8	500
May 16	9:47 PM CDT	F0	Madison, TX	0.5	20		$10,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.