Tornadoes · United States · Arkansas · 2003

F1 tornado, Casa to Williams Junction, Arkansas, May 16, 2003

From Casa to Williams Junction, this F1 tornado ran 2.4 miles across Perry County on May 16, 2003, touching down at 4:20 PM CDT and reaching 75 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. F040 to 72 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. F173 to 112 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. F2113 to 157 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. F3158 to 206 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. F4207 to 260 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. F5261 to 318 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
F1
Date
May 16, 2003
Touchdown
4:20 PM CDT (21:20 UTC)
Path length
2.4 miles (3.9 km)
Path width
75 yards (69 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Perry County
Touchdown point
35.020, -93.070
Lift-off point
35.020, -93.030
Record number
338

What the Weather Service recorded

A weak tornado touched down briefly over northwest Perry County. The tornado affected mainly rural areas with numerous downed trees noted along the damage path.

A weak tornado moved from Saline County into Perry County about 6.9 miles west-southwest of Williams Junction. The tornado was only on the ground briefly and downed some small trees before dissipating 6 miles west-southwest of Williams Junction.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

8 minutes of warning. NWS LZK issued a tornado warning for this county at 21:12 UTC, 8 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 22:10 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
20:16 UTC21:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZK
21:12 UTC22:10 UTCTornado WarningLZK
22:00 UTC22:45 UTCTornado WarningLZK
22:46 UTC23:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZK
02:31 UTC04:30 UTCFlash Flood WarningLZK

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Moderate Risk, with a 0.15 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 19:52 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Springfield, MO (KSGF), 12:00Z

9.3 hours before the tornado, 220 km from the path. May 16, 2003.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2003-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 189 joules per kilogram, CIN -176, lifted condensation level 777 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2003-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 178 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 36 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
189 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-176 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
777 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
178 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
168 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9
0-3 km lapse rate
4.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Springfield, MO (KSGF), 00:00Z

2.7 hours after it, 220 km from the path. May 17, 2003.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-05-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 138 joules per kilogram, CIN -41, lifted condensation level 544 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-05-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 154 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 37 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
138 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-41 J/kg
Surface CAPE
299 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
544 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
5.5 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Russellville Municipal Airport (RUE), 27 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
19:30 UTC66.266.290° 13 kt211005.4+TSRA BR
19:42 UTC66.266.2120° 7 kt201007.1+TSRA BR
19:53 UTC6866110° 15 kt221005.4+TSRA FG
20:02 UTC6868100° 7 kt231005.4TS BR
20:05 UTC6868 6 kt231006.1TS BR
20:13 UTC66.266.2 5 kt241005.8+TSRA BR
20:32 UTC66.266.2100° 8 kt151006.1VCTS +RA BR
20:45 UTC66.266.2 5 kt1006.8+TSRA BR
20:53 UTC6666110° 7 kt1005.8+TSRA BR
21:01 UTC66.266.2110° 7 kt1006.1TSRA BR
21:08 UTC66.266.2 6 kt1005.8TSRA BR
21:15 UTC66.266.2 5 kt1005.8-TSRA BR
21:23 UTC66.266.2 4 kt1005.8VCTS
21:53 UTC6666100° 5 kt1004.1
22:25 UTC66.266.2130° 4 kt1004.7VCTS
22:53 UTC6766 4 kt1004.1TS
23:06 UTC66.264.4290° 19 kt241006.8-TSRA BR
23:14 UTC64.464.4320° 8 kt241006.1+TSRA FG

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2003 tornado in ArkansasEvery tornado in Arkansas since 1950Warnings in force in Arkansas nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of May 16, 2003

41 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
May 163:53 AM CDTF1Lincoln, OK2.320$10,000
May 165:41 AM CDTF1Delaware, OK3.22002$1.0 million
May 161:05 PM CDTF1Lincoln, OK4.940$20,000
May 161:08 PM CDTF0Kingfisher, OK0.330
May 161:15 PM CDTF0Lincoln, OK0.320
May 161:20 PM CDTF0Lincoln, OK0.320
May 161:30 PM CDTF0Kingfisher, OK0.320
May 161:40 PM CDTF1Okmulgee, OK3.0100$100,000
May 162:08 PM CDTF0Okmulgee, OK1.025$20,000
May 162:10 PM CDTF0Lincoln, OK0.320
May 162:15 PM CDTF0McIntosh, OK0.525
May 162:20 PM CDTF0Payne, OK0.425
May 162:46 PM CDTF0Yell, AR3.030
May 162:47 PM CDTF1Jackson, AR5.0100
May 163:08 PM CDTF1Jackson, AR17.0100
May 163:22 PM CDTF0Haskell, OK2.0401$30,000
May 163:43 PM CDTF1Haskell, OK3.070$150,000
May 164:06 PM CDTF1Faulkner, AR7.0100
May 164:17 PM CDTF1Faulkner, AR5.075
May 164:23 PM CDTF0Perry, AR2.330
May 164:25 PM CDTF1Faulkner, AR6.0100
May 164:31 PM CDTF0Perry, AR1.325
May 164:35 PM CDTF1White, AR4.5100
May 164:43 PM CDTF2White, AR5.0150
May 164:45 PM CDTF0Sebastian, AR0.225
May 164:47 PM CDTF1Cleburne, AR10.050
May 165:01 PM CDTF0Logan, AR3.825
May 165:06 PM CDTF1White, AR5.580
May 165:20 PM CDTF1White, AR4.5100
May 165:29 PM CDTF2White, AR5.0150
May 165:58 PM CDTF1Jackson, AR16.0100
May 166:14 PM CDTF1Yell, AR3.460
May 166:27 PM CDTF0Yell, AR2.230
May 166:39 PM CDTF2Saline, AR4.7150
May 166:40 PM CDTF1Poinsett, AR5.0100$50,000
May 166:40 PM CDTF0Garland, AR3.530
May 167:10 PM CDTF1Dallas, AR16.0100
May 167:24 PM CDTF0Pulaski, AR4.725
May 167:35 PM CDTF0Pulaski, AR8.250
May 168:32 PM CDTF2Dallas, AR25.8500
May 169:47 PM CDTF0Madison, TX0.520$10,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.