Tornadoes · United States · Arkansas · 2003

F1 tornado, Manning to Leola, Arkansas, May 16, 2003

From Manning to Leola, this F1 tornado ran 16.0 miles across Dallas, Hot Spring and Grant counties on May 16, 2003, touching down at 7:10 PM CDT and reaching 100 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. F040 to 72 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. F173 to 112 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. F2113 to 157 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. F3158 to 206 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. F4207 to 260 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. F5261 to 318 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
F1
Date
May 16, 2003
Touchdown
7:10 PM CDT (00:10 UTC)
Path length
16.0 miles (25.7 km)
Path width
100 yards (91 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Counties
Dallas, Hot Spring and Grant counties
Touchdown point
34.050, -92.820
Lift-off point
34.200, -92.620
Record number
334

What the Weather Service recorded

A weak tornado touched down over western Hot Spring County 2.5 miles northwest of Manning. Most of the damage along the tornado path consisted of numerous downed pine trees and large limbs twisted off other trees. A few shingles were also blown off one business. The tornado tracked to the northeast into Hot Spring County.

A weak tornado moved from Dallas County into the extreme southeast corner of Hot Spring County about 4.2 miles southwest of Lono along Highway 9. An eyewitness observed the tornado cross from Dallas County into Hot Spring County. The only damage noted were a few trees that were blown down. The tornado continued moving northeastward into Grant County.

The weak tornado moved from Hot Spring County into the southwest corner of Grant County about 5.3 miles southwest of Leola. Virtually all the damage was to trees that were either downed or twisted off. The tornado dissipated about 3 miles northwest of Leola.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
00:04 UTC01:05 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZK
00:20 UTC01:05 UTCTornado WarningLZK
01:17 UTC02:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZK

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Moderate Risk, with a 0.15 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 19:52 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), 00:00Z

0.2 hours before the tornado, 206 km from the path. May 17, 2003.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2003-05-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 1901 joules per kilogram, CIN -14, lifted condensation level 1440 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2003-05-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 218 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 44 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1901 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-14 J/kg
Surface CAPE
3173 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1440 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
218 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
247 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.4
Supercell composite
15.5
0-3 km lapse rate
7.2 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), 12:00Z

11.8 hours after it, 206 km from the path. May 17, 2003.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-05-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -77368, lifted condensation level 762 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-05-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -1 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 37 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-77368 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
762 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
4.3 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2003 tornado in ArkansasEvery tornado in Arkansas since 1950Warnings in force in Arkansas nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of May 16, 2003

41 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
May 163:53 AM CDTF1Lincoln, OK2.320$10,000
May 165:41 AM CDTF1Delaware, OK3.22002$1.0 million
May 161:05 PM CDTF1Lincoln, OK4.940$20,000
May 161:08 PM CDTF0Kingfisher, OK0.330
May 161:15 PM CDTF0Lincoln, OK0.320
May 161:20 PM CDTF0Lincoln, OK0.320
May 161:30 PM CDTF0Kingfisher, OK0.320
May 161:40 PM CDTF1Okmulgee, OK3.0100$100,000
May 162:08 PM CDTF0Okmulgee, OK1.025$20,000
May 162:10 PM CDTF0Lincoln, OK0.320
May 162:15 PM CDTF0McIntosh, OK0.525
May 162:20 PM CDTF0Payne, OK0.425
May 162:46 PM CDTF0Yell, AR3.030
May 162:47 PM CDTF1Jackson, AR5.0100
May 163:08 PM CDTF1Jackson, AR17.0100
May 163:22 PM CDTF0Haskell, OK2.0401$30,000
May 163:43 PM CDTF1Haskell, OK3.070$150,000
May 164:06 PM CDTF1Faulkner, AR7.0100
May 164:17 PM CDTF1Faulkner, AR5.075
May 164:20 PM CDTF1Perry, AR2.475
May 164:23 PM CDTF0Perry, AR2.330
May 164:25 PM CDTF1Faulkner, AR6.0100
May 164:31 PM CDTF0Perry, AR1.325
May 164:35 PM CDTF1White, AR4.5100
May 164:43 PM CDTF2White, AR5.0150
May 164:45 PM CDTF0Sebastian, AR0.225
May 164:47 PM CDTF1Cleburne, AR10.050
May 165:01 PM CDTF0Logan, AR3.825
May 165:06 PM CDTF1White, AR5.580
May 165:20 PM CDTF1White, AR4.5100
May 165:29 PM CDTF2White, AR5.0150
May 165:58 PM CDTF1Jackson, AR16.0100
May 166:14 PM CDTF1Yell, AR3.460
May 166:27 PM CDTF0Yell, AR2.230
May 166:39 PM CDTF2Saline, AR4.7150
May 166:40 PM CDTF1Poinsett, AR5.0100$50,000
May 166:40 PM CDTF0Garland, AR3.530
May 167:24 PM CDTF0Pulaski, AR4.725
May 167:35 PM CDTF0Pulaski, AR8.250
May 168:32 PM CDTF2Dallas, AR25.8500
May 169:47 PM CDTF0Madison, TX0.520$10,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.