Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA.

WITH 3 TO 4 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS...SATURATED GROUND...AND
MORE RAIN TO COME TONIGHT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS AND NOT MOVING MUCH. THE
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL LOWS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES
RANGED FROM -1 TO -8 WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN OKLAHOMA PASSES BY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXIT EAST ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE QUIETER DAYS WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.LZK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ZONES
ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047...
ARZ052>057...ARZ062>069.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF ARKANSAS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED WET WEATHER ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF ARKANSAS
TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WEATHER STILL A POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...
BECOMING WEAKER AS IT DOES. RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE
MORNING BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY IN THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0216 PM    SEARCY                    AR   75 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
05/16/03   WHITE                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0254 PM    BRADFORD                  AR   .75 INCH HAIL
05/16/03   WHITE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
347 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    BRADFORD                  AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   WHITE                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

0245 PM    BRADFORD                  AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/16/03   WHITE                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0305 PM    4 SW INGLESIDE            AR   TORNADO
05/16/03   JACKSON                        PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO
                                          SOUTH OF THE WHITE RIVER
                                          BRIDGE OFF U.S. 67. THIS IS
                                          UNCONFIRMED

0305 PM    SIMS                      AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   MONTGOMERY                     TWO CREEKS FLOODING A
                                          ROAD. 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN
                                          LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALSO
                                          4.29 INCHES OF RAIN IN LAST
                                          1 TO 2 HOURS AT HOG JAW.
                                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR AND SPOTTER

0310 PM    CASA                      AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   PERRY                          TREES DOWN AND BUTANE TANK
                                          OVERTURNED. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0312 PM    ODEN                      AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   MONTGOMERY                     4.29 INCHES OF RAIN IN
                                          LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. REPORTED
                                          BY STORM SPOTTER

0318 PM    SIMS                      AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   MONTGOMERY                     HIGHWAY 88 FLOODED JUST
                                          EAST OF SIMS. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

0337 PM    MORRILTON                 AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   CONWAY                         SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER
                                          OVER HIGHWAY 95 A COUPLE OF
                                          PLACES NEAR MORRILTON.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER

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