Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA.

WITH 3 TO 4 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS...SATURATED GROUND...AND
MORE RAIN TO COME TONIGHT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS AND NOT MOVING MUCH. THE
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL LOWS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON LIFTED INDICES
RANGED FROM -1 TO -8 WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN OKLAHOMA PASSES BY. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXIT EAST ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE QUIETER DAYS WITH THE LOW MOVING OFF TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.LZK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ZONES
ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047...
ARZ052>057...ARZ062>069.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
IS STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AND STALL ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. THIS
WILL ALLOW VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO FLOW INTO THE
ENTIRE STATE. THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF
THIS ADVANCING LOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...IT WILL ACT ON THIS TROPICAL AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE
WEATHER A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY MORNING OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE. ALL OF
ARKANSAS IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS UNDER A MODERATE RISK. THE MODERATE RISK EXTENDS
WEST OF A CAMDEN TO BENTON TO CLARKSVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE BUT
ANYWHERE IN ARKANSAS IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEVERE WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. ONCE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED....A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATURAL STATE. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...THIS MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...BECOMING
WEAKER AS IT DOES. RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING
BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LOW BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE EARLY IN THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0216 PM    SEARCY                    AR   75 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
05/16/03   WHITE                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0254 PM    BRADFORD                  AR   .75 INCH HAIL
05/16/03   WHITE                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
347 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    BRADFORD                  AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   WHITE                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

0245 PM    BRADFORD                  AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/16/03   WHITE                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0305 PM    4 SW INGLESIDE            AR   TORNADO
05/16/03   JACKSON                        PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO
                                          SOUTH OF THE WHITE RIVER
                                          BRIDGE OFF U.S. 67. THIS IS
                                          UNCONFIRMED

0305 PM    SIMS                      AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   MONTGOMERY                     TWO CREEKS FLOODING A
                                          ROAD. 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN
                                          LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALSO
                                          4.29 INCHES OF RAIN IN LAST
                                          1 TO 2 HOURS AT HOG JAW.
                                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR AND SPOTTER

0310 PM    CASA                      AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   PERRY                          TREES DOWN AND BUTANE TANK
                                          OVERTURNED. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0312 PM    ODEN                      AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   MONTGOMERY                     4.29 INCHES OF RAIN IN
                                          LAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. REPORTED
                                          BY STORM SPOTTER

0318 PM    SIMS                      AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   MONTGOMERY                     HIGHWAY 88 FLOODED JUST
                                          EAST OF SIMS. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

0337 PM    MORRILTON                 AR   FLASH FLOODS
05/16/03   CONWAY                         SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER
                                          OVER HIGHWAY 95 A COUPLE OF
                                          PLACES NEAR MORRILTON.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER

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