Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Little Rock, AR

May 16, 2003Johnson County, Logan County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 16, 2003, 6:13 AM CDT for Johnson County, Logan County, Arkansas. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2003, 6:13 AM CDT (11:13 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2003, 6:55 AM CDT
In force
42 min
Issued by
NWS Little Rock, AR
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
May 16, 4:25 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 341 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2003-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 65 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
341 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1169 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 16, 4:00 AM CDT, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 4:00 AM CDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 4:30 AM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
IS STRETCHED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY AND STALL ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER. THIS
WILL ALLOW VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO FLOW INTO THE
ENTIRE STATE. THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF
THIS ADVANCING LOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...IT WILL ACT ON THIS TROPICAL AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE
WEATHER A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY EARLY MORNING OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE. ALL OF
ARKANSAS IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS UNDER A MODERATE RISK. THE MODERATE RISK EXTENDS
WEST OF A CAMDEN TO BENTON TO CLARKSVILLE TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE BUT
ANYWHERE IN ARKANSAS IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEVERE WEATHER.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. ONCE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED....A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATURAL STATE. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK...THIS MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN
WOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY...BECOMING
WEAKER AS IT DOES. RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING
BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LOW BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE EARLY IN THE DAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

56

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 6:54 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKNewton41 min
May 16, 10:06 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIndependence29 min
May 16, 1:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKWhite45 min
May 16, 2:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKWhite48 min
May 16, 2:17 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKWhite33 min
May 16, 2:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKYell31 min
May 16, 2:27 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKMontgomery28 min
May 16, 2:41 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKJackson, Woodruff49 min
May 16, 2:43 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKYell27 min
May 16, 3:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway45 min
May 16, 3:13 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKMontgomery3 hr
May 16, 3:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPerry44 min
May 16, 3:27 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKJackson43 min
May 16, 3:37 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKYell3 hr
May 16, 3:42 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKConway3 hr
May 16, 3:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner43 min
May 16, 3:54 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKPope2 hr
May 16, 3:58 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKFaulkner2 hr
May 16, 4:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPulaski58 min
May 16, 4:05 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKFaulkner45 min
May 16, 4:12 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKPerry, Saline58 min
May 16, 4:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKWhite61 min
May 16, 4:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKScott44 min
May 16, 4:38 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKCleburne57 min
May 16, 4:42 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKWhite58 min
May 16, 4:51 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKFaulkner39 min
May 16, 4:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan42 min
May 16, 5:00 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKGarland, Perry, Saline45 min
May 16, 5:02 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKLogan33 min
May 16, 5:03 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKWhite57 min
May 16, 5:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPulaski14 min
May 16, 5:12 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKVan Buren118 min
May 16, 5:24 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKYell36 min
May 16, 5:25 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKWhite3 hr
May 16, 5:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJackson, Woodruff57 min
May 16, 5:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Logan, Pope48 min
May 16, 5:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJackson, Woodruff52 min
May 16, 5:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIndependence41 min
May 16, 5:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Perry59 min
May 16, 5:58 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKYell47 min
May 16, 6:04 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKPope3 hr
May 16, 6:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKWhite35 min
May 16, 6:12 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKMontgomery3 hr
May 16, 6:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery60 min
May 16, 6:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPope25 min
May 16, 6:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJackson, Woodruff47 min
May 16, 6:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Van Buren55 min
May 16, 6:35 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKConway, Yell3 hr
May 16, 6:39 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKJackson, Woodruff3 hr
May 16, 6:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKWhite59 min
May 16, 6:53 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKPulaski47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.