New Mexico, 2023

High Wind in New Mexico, March 15, 2023

March 15, 2023 · NWS ABQ · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Strong southwest winds impacted parts of the high terrain of the Sacramento Mountains near Ruidoso on March 15, 2023. The Smokey Bear RAWS measured a peak gust of 63 mph.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.

Strong southwest winds impacted parts of the high terrain of the Sacramento Mountains near Ruidoso on March 15, 2023. The Smokey Bear RAWS measured a peak gust of 63 mph.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 2:10 PM MST, 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 2:10 PM MST, 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
310 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023

A Pacific storm system and backdoor cold front will impact the
region through Friday with windy conditions initially, followed by
colder conditions with good chances for precipitation. Significant
snow accumulations are likely in the mountains through Friday,
especially across the northern mountains where a Winter Storm
Warning is in effect. Mostly rain is expected at the lower
elevations until Thursday night when some locales may see a change
over to wet snow. Chances for showers with below normal temperatures
will persist through the weekend. Winds will trend up next week in
advance of another Pacific storm system, forecast to impact the
state around mid week with good chances for precipitation and more
windy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Unsettled weather is on the docket tonight as moisture out ahead of
an incoming trough helps to initiate rain and snow showers across
northern and central NM. Showers already visible on radar across
portions of western and northern NM this afternoon will spread
eastward into the overnight hours. Warm air currently prevailing
around the state will keep snow levels above 9000', keeping PTYPEs
more rain dominant and allowing snow to remain isolated to extreme
high terrain. This already occurring precipitation will get
reinforced tonight as forcing is aided by the incoming upper level
trough. Snow levels are expected to slowly fall during this time,
allowing accumulations to remain localized to the higher
elevations. Precipitation will spread eastward and reaching the
central mts into Thursday morning. A gusty backdoor cold front
will descend down the eastern plains and the subsequent
frontogenetic forcing will work to give rise to another round of
precipitation from the Sangre de Cristo Mts and eastward. Cold air
invades behind this front, allowing for snow levels to quickly
fall in its wake. With healthy PWATs and favorable forcing, did
opt to maintain the current Winter Storm Warning but also add
Winter Weather Advisories for the Upper Rio Grande Valley and
Johnson/Bartlett Mesas, including Raton Pass.

Gusty winds will continue overnight thanks to the help of turbulent
mixing and strong winds aloft. The central mts will maintain windy
conditions well into Thursday morning before tapering off.

The trough flattens in its exit to the Great Plains Thursday night,
and bitter cold air is left in its wake. Freezing temperatures are
expected areawide with locales seeing minimum temperatures anywhere
from 5 to 25 degrees cooler than Wednesday night's readings.
Residual moisture and the potential orographic forcing will allow
light high terrain snow to persist along the central mts. As the
backdoor cold front surges westward, east winds are expected to
fill through the canyon caps. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 kts will be
possible late Thursday night into Friday morning in and around the
ABQ metro.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023

By Friday morning, the backdoor cold front will have progressed to
the Continental Divide and snow levels will have lowered to valley
floors, including the Albuquerque Metro. A trailing shortwave trough
is forecast to move east across the area Friday and interact with
remaining and weakening forcing from the backdoor front to bring
another round of snow. The Winter Storm Warning may need to be
extended through Friday for the northern mountains. Otherwise, snow
Friday across the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros should be mostly
nuisance-type with accumulations ranging from a trace to an inch or
so and will likely not be advisory worthy. Otherwise, Friday will be
relatively cold with highs forecast to be 15-25 degrees below
normal. Unsettled and relatively cold will be the weather theme for
the weekend, with high temperatures forecast to continue at 15-25
degrees below normal. The signal for precipitation this weekend is
on the downtrend from yesterday's model runs to today's while the
12Z GFS and ECMWF are at odd with the timing and placement of a
passing shortwave trough. Have trimmed PoPs for the weekend compared
to the previous forecast cycle, but sufficient Pacific moisture will
remain for showers.

Backing and increasing flow aloft is forecast early next week with
Pacific moisture back on the uptrend as an upper level trough/low
hits the west coast and progresses eastward toward the southern
Rockies by mid week. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are once again at odds
with the timing and placement of the approaching trough next week,
but as trend toward windier and wetter conditions by mid week looks
to be a solid bet. At this time, Wednesday of next week looks to be
the most impactful day, with strong winds and mountain snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Conditions expected to continue deteriorating across the area
ahead of an approaching trough. Strong sw winds will develop in
the aftn with gusts around 35 to 45 kts, especially along and
east the central mts. MVFR and lcl IFR conditions will be possible
this afternoon due to lowering cigs/vsbys, starting in nwern NM
and then spreading ewd into portion of central NM. Conditions will
be unlikely to improve completely through the latter portion of
the TAF period, with low cloud decks and precipitation persisting
into the morning hours for most terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2023

No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next seven
days. A wet and unsettled pattern is expected to persist for the
next several days. Rain and high elevation snow west of the central
mountains will spread eastward overnight persisting through Friday
morning. A gusty backdoor cold front will descend into the eastern
plains Friday morning, with much cooler air filtering in behind.
Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected with short intervals
of somewhat quiet weather expected between systems on Friday and
Tuesday. Minimum RH values are expected to improve alongside cooler
temperatures. Ventilation will be good to excellent in areas
tomorrow before trending fair to poor throughout the rest of the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  35  50  23  45 /  90  50   5   5
Dulce...........................  29  46  16  39 /  90  70  40  20
Cuba............................  33  46  21  37 /  80  60  30  20
Gallup..........................  34  47  20  44 /  90  30  10  20
El Morro........................  32  43  23  41 /  90  40  30  30
Grants..........................  32  51  20  40 /  70  30  30  30
Quemado.........................  32  47  26  44 /  90  30  20  20
Magdalena.......................  37  53  24  40 /  70  30  30  30
Datil...........................  33  48  25  41 /  80  30  30  30
Reserve.........................  33  54  26  51 /  90  20  10  10
Glenwood........................  40  55  34  55 /  90  20   5   5
Chama...........................  28  40  12  32 /  90  90  60  40
Los Alamos......................  36  45  24  35 /  90  70  60  30
Pecos...........................  35  44  18  34 /  80  80  80  30
Cerro/Questa....................  37  41  18  32 /  70  90  80  30
Red River.......................  27  35   8  28 /  80 100  80  30
Angel Fire......................  29  34   1  29 /  80 100  90  30
Taos............................  33  44  14  35 /  70  90  70  20
Mora............................  33  41  11  32 /  60  90  70  30
Espanola........................  37  52  24  40 /  80  80  60  30
Santa Fe........................  36  46  23  35 /  90  80  70  30
Santa Fe Airport................  35  50  21  38 /  90  70  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  42  53  27  42 /  80  60  50  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  41  56  28  44 /  80  50  40  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  40  59  25  46 /  80  40  40  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  40  57  27  44 /  80  40  40  30
Belen...........................  40  61  24  47 /  80  40  40  30
Bernalillo......................  40  56  26  44 /  80  50  50  30
Bosque Farms....................  39  60  22  46 /  80  40  40  30
Corrales........................  40  57  26  44 /  80  50  50  30
Los Lunas.......................  39  60  24  46 /  80  40  40  30
Placitas........................  40  52  26  40 /  80  60  50  30
Rio Rancho......................  40  56  27  43 /  80  50  40  30
Socorro.........................  41  63  27  48 /  70  30  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  37  47  22  36 /  80  70  60  50
Tijeras.........................  37  50  24  39 /  80  70  60  40
Edgewood........................  35  49  20  37 /  80  70  60  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  34  51  17  38 /  70  60  60  40
Clines Corners..................  34  46  16  34 /  60  70  70  50
Mountainair.....................  36  52  20  38 /  80  60  60  40
Gran Quivira....................  37  53  20  38 /  80  60  60  40
Carrizozo.......................  44  58  27  45 /  70  60  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  39  51  19  39 /  70  70  50  30
Capulin.........................  26  34  11  34 /  20  90  30  10
Raton...........................  30  38  11  37 /  30  90  40  20
Springer........................  32  41  13  40 /  10  80  40  10
Las Vegas.......................  34  42  14  34 /  30  80  60  30
Clayton.........................  31  38  16  40 /  10  80  10   0
Roy.............................  34  41  16  38 /  10  80  30   5
Conchas.........................  41  50  22  45 /  10  90  30   5
Santa Rosa......................  40  50  23  42 /  20  70  40  10
Tucumcari.......................  41  50  20  44 /  10  80  10   0
Clovis..........................  44  55  23  45 /  10  50  10   0
Portales........................  46  58  23  47 /  10  40  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  57  24  46 /  20  50  30   5
Roswell.........................  50  69  31  51 /  10  20  20  10
Picacho.........................  45  62  24  44 /  30  30  40  10
Elk.............................  42  60  21  42 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ230>232-234.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ210-211-
213>215.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday
for NMZ216-227.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ226-240.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...12

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, South Central Mountains

When
March 15, 3:00 PM MST to 3:05 PM MST
Where
South Central Mountains forecast zone
Measured
55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by
RAWS
Coordinates
33.745, -105.459 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Smokey Bear RAWS measured a peak wind gust of 63 mph.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, March 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1076262.