Arizona, 2023

Flooding in Arizona, March 15 to 18, 2023

March 15 to 18, 2023 · NWS FGZ · 6 events in 2 counties and zones

A trough of low pressure moving eastward across California brought a plume of deep moisture to Arizona as well. The synoptic-scale ascent from the trough combined with the moisture allowed for periods of heavy rain over Arizona March 15 and 16.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

A trough of low pressure moving eastward across California brought a plume of deep moisture to Arizona as well. The synoptic-scale ascent from the trough combined with the moisture allowed for periods of heavy rain over Arizona March 15 and 16. Surface dewpoints were similar to summer time...in the 40s and 50s. The heavy rainfall, high snow levels, and deep snow pack combined to produce rapid snow melt and significant runoff into area waterways.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 3:16 AM MST, 3 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 3:16 AM MST, 3 hours 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
316 AM MST Wed Mar 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered rain showers and high elevation snow begin
this evening in northwest Arizona before increasing from west to
east this morning and continuing through Thursday. Rain and
melting snow will bring increase flows in waterways Wednesday and
Thursday. There will be potential for flooding. After a pause in
precipitation Friday, rain and snow chances return for the weekend
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Thursday Night...As the trough over California
continues to trek eastward, a plume of deep moisture continues to
move into Arizona as well. Synoptic-scale ascent from the trough
combined with the moisture will allow for periods of heavy rain to
develop this morning and continuing into Thursday morning. The
heaviest rain looks to fall mainly along and south of the Mogollon
Rim, starting late this morning into the afternoon.

Latest guidance continues on an upward trend in QPF, with a swath of
1.00-2.00 inches of rainfall expected mainly in the usual southwest
flow upslope regions. Locally higher amounts of 2.00-2.50 inches
are possible in the heaviest rain. Elsewhere, around 0.50-1.00
inches of rain is expected across the lower elevations of central
Arizona and over the Navajo Nation. In the typical rain-shadowed
regions along the Little Colorado River Valley, lesser amounts of
around 0.25-0.50 inches are expected.

The heavy rainfall combined with rapid snow melt, will lead to
significant runoff into area waterways. Many areas south of the
Mogollon Rim are already seeing elevated flow, thus several
waterways may approach or exceed flood stage. If you are near any
waterways, or in a low-lying area that is prone for flooding, take
precautions now and anticipate high water levels and/or flooding
Wednesday and Thursday. The flood threat is currently expected along
Oak Creek and Wet Beaver Creek, then as they flow into the Verde
River. Significant rises along the Little Colorado River also appear
to be possible.

Late Wednesday as the trough axis passes through, colder air is
advected into the region. However, guidance continues to show that
700mb temperatures look to bottom out at around -2 to -4 deg C.
Thus, snow levels look to remain fairly high at around 6500-7000
feet during the bulk of the precipitation Wednesday night. The best
chances for any accumulating snow, look to mainly be above 8000 feet.

Outside of the preciptation, patchy fog will remain a possibility
with ample moisture in place during the overnight and early morning
hours.

Friday through Tuesday...Guidance shows zonal flow setting up over
Arizona behind the trough. However, occasional shortwave passages
through the period will keep precipitation in the forecast from
Saturday onward. Temperatures will also remain about 5 to 10 degrees
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAF package...MVFR/IFR will prevail, with
periods of LIFR, through the TAF period. South to southwest winds 10
to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Strongest winds will be east
of KFLG. Rain showers will continue through the period with isolated
thunder possible after 20Z south and west of KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy and mild conditions continue today with
southwest winds gusting up to 30 to 40 mph, becoming lighter out of
the northwest on Thursday. Rain and high elevation snow will spread
from west to east today and continue through Thursday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible, mainly south and west of the Mogollon
Rim. Cooler air moving in on Thursday will drop snow levels down
around 6500-7000 feet but little to no accumulation is expected.

Friday through Sunday....A brief break is expected on Friday, then
rain and snow chances return for Saturday and Sunday. Expect cooler
than average temperatures, with generally light winds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM MST this morning through Thursday
afternoon for AZZ018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Coconino

When
March 15, 7:00 AM MST to March 17, 10:00 AM MST
Where
Coconino County, 5.63 mi WNW of Munds Park to 8.41 mi SW of Sedona Arpt
Cause
Heavy Rain / Snow Melt
Reported by
Official NWS Observations
Coordinates
34.944, -111.754

Oak Creek began flooding in Oak Creek Canyon around 700 AM on March 15. The road was closed near Orchard Canyon Lodge and Banjo Bill Campground. There was 3 feet of water above the road at a stage of 5.22 feet at the Sedona gauge. Cooper Cliffs Road was closed by 1100 AM MST due to the flooding. Doodlebug and New Castle Lane were close at around 200 AM on March 16. The creek remained above this level for just over 3 days. The peak flow as about 10.5 feet at 800 AM MST on March 16.

The Oak Creek gauge near Cornville (OACA3) showed more than a 7.5-foot rise from 5.2 feet at 1PM March 15 to a crest of 12.76 feet at 115 AM on March 16. The gauge dropped back to around 5.2 feet by 1000 AM March 17.

The Sedona Police Department reported that evacuations were made along Oak Creek from the evening of March 15 through the morning of March 16. The locations that were evacuated include Rancho Sedona RV Park, Trails End Road, Trails End Lane, Blackhawk Lane, Newcastle Lane, Oak Creek Mobilelodge, Sycamore Road, The Center of the New Age, and the Villas at Poco Diablo Resort.

A rock slide closed Highway 89 through the upper part of Oak Creek Canyon (switchbacks) about 3 miles north of Slide Rock State Park around 323 PM on March 16.

Flood, Yavapai

When
March 15, 7:00 AM MST to March 17, 12:00 PM MST
Where
Yavapai County, 2.35 mi SSW of (Prc)prescott Arpt to 3.15 mi NW of Entro
Cause
Heavy Rain / Snow Melt
Reported by
Other Federal Agency
Coordinates
34.618, -112.436

The Granite Creek Gauge showed water rising from 6.00 feet around 400 AM MST March 15 to a crest of 8.00 feet at midnight on March 16.

Flood, Yavapai

When
March 15, 10:00 AM MST to March 18, 10:00 AM MST
Where
Yavapai County, 3.03 mi SSW of Sycamore to 2.32 mi E of Rock Spgs
Cause
Heavy Rain / Snow Melt
Reported by
Other Federal Agency
Coordinates
34.837, -112.091

The Verde River Gauge near Clarkdale started raising rapidly around 1000 AM March 15 from around 8.00 feet to a crest of around 15.8 feet by 1100 PM MST on March 15. The Verde River dropped back to around 8.0 feet by 900 AM on March 18. The Verde River in Camp Verde started to rise rapidly around 500 PM on March 15 from 11.8 feet. The crest was at 20.8 feet at 300 March 16 and the river returned to 11.8 feet by 900 PM on March 19. The Verde River below Tangle Creek began to rise rapidly around 500 PM from 12.0 feet. The crest was around 700 PM at 20.3 feet and slowly fell back to 12.0 feet by 400 PM by 400 PM March 19.

Homes were flooded along Bates Drive in Cottonwood.

Flood, Yavapai

When
March 15, 11:00 AM MST to March 17, 10:00 AM MST
Where
Yavapai County, 7.77 mi SE of Oak Creek Canyon Arp to 5.13 mi W of Mc Guireville
Cause
Heavy Rain / Snow Melt
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
34.786, -111.668

Extensive flooding was reported along Dry Beaver Creek across Kimberlys Way (150 feet wide). The river gauge upstream reported a 4 foot rise. The creek crested around midnight on March 16 at about 4.5 feet above the creek bed.

Flood, Yavapai

When
March 15, 11:00 AM MST to March 17, 11:00 AM MST
Where
Yavapai County, 10.67 mi ESE of Beaver Creek to 12.02 mi ESE of Beaver Creek
Cause
Heavy Rain / Snow Melt
Reported by
Other Federal Agency
Coordinates
34.609, -111.528

The Wet Beaver Creek gauge near Rimrock rose from 5.5 feet at 1000 AM MST on March 15 to 9.4 feet at 400 PM. The creek dropped back to 5.5 feet by noon on March 17. A local newspaper reported that areas along Wet Beaver Creek were evacuated. This included Rimrock near Lake Montezuma and people along Beaver Vista Drive and Rimrock Drive. An overnight shelter was set up at Camp Verde Middle School.

Flood, Yavapai

When
March 15, 12:00 PM MST to March 17, 9:00 AM MST
Where
Yavapai County, 15.6 mi ESE of Beaver Creek to 22.46 mi W of Camp Verde Arpt
Cause
Heavy Rain / Snow Melt
Reported by
Other Federal Agency
Coordinates
34.619, -111.433

The West Clear Creek gauge near Camp Verde showed a 5-foot rise from 2.8 feet at noon on March 15 to a crest of 8.1 feet by 100 AM March 16. The water level returned to 2.8 feet by 9 AM on March 17.

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, March 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1086758, 1089533, 1089542, 1089514, 1089538, 1089743.