Higher than normal moisture content combined with a southeasterly wind flow produced showers and thunderstorms from the streamer that developed from the El Yunque area into the San Juan metro area. The Doppler radar estimated between 2 and 5 inches of rain in and around Carolina, Hato Rey, and San Juan, where flooding was reported.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Higher than normal moisture content combined with a southeasterly wind flow produced showers and thunderstorms from the streamer that developed from the El Yunque area into the San Juan metro area. The Doppler radar estimated between 2 and 5 inches of rain in and around Carolina, Hato Rey, and San Juan, where flooding was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 11:05 AM AST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1105 AM AST Wed Mar 15 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM AST Wed Mar 15 2023
Today's sounding indicated weak east-southeast to southeast
steering wind flows across the region, with above-normal moisture
content. These factors, local effects, sea breeze, and diurnal
heating, will promote afternoon convection today. We include
isolated thunderstorms in this afternoon's forecast because we
cannot rule out their formation. Urban flooding is also likely
with the heaviest rains.
San Juan and Rincon buoys detected a long-period northerly swell
with a period around 14 seconds and wave heights between 5 and 7
feet resulting in dangerous breaking waves between 8 and 14 feet
along the Atlantic Coastline of PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM AST Wed Mar 15 2023
VFR conditions will persist across most local terminals through
the forecast period. However, SHRA/+SHRA and isold TSRA will
develop across PR's interior and northern coast between 15/18-23z,
creating BKN/OVC skies between FL020-FL080, which may affect
JSJ/JBQ at times. Winds will persist mainly from the east-
southeast at 5-15 knots, dominated by sea breeze variations. Winds
will become calm to light and variable after 15/23z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1105 AM AST Wed Mar 15 2023
A long-period-northerly swell is creating hazardous marine
conditions across the Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages.
Therefore, Small Craft Advisory will continue in effect throughout
the week. The winds will be from the east-southeast to southeast at
5 to 15 knots and may increase and shift more from the north
around Thursday night.
Hazardous coastal conditions across the Atlantic Coastline in
PR/USVI will continue due to the long-period nature of the
northeasterly swell. Therefore, we issued a Coastal Hazards
Messages (CFWSJU) with the following hazards: High Surf Advisory,
and High Risk of Rip Current for the islands. Please refer to the
CFWSJU for more details.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 514 AM AST Wed Mar 15 2023
A recent pulse of swell is fading this morning along our coasts.
A second, stronger pulse will come in on Thursday night and
persist well into the weekend. Nevertheless marine conditions
will remain hazardous. Better than average moisture for March
continues over the area and will bring more showers to the
interior of Puerto Rico and the local waters. It should not result
in the heavy amounts seen yesterday. This moisture will persist
and then be met on Thursday by a cold front advancing from the
northwest. Drier weather is expected for the weekend and beyond,
but scattered showers from a shallow layer of moisture will
continue in the normal diurnal pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
Weather-wise, the main feature that will affect the region will be a
cold front that will move through on Thursday. For today, passing
showers will continue moving across sectors of the eastern forecast
area as a patch of relatively more humid air persists over our area.
Satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) shows normal to above
normal values over our the islands. Current model guidance show this
patch gradually moving northward as windflow becomes more southerly,
but not before afternoon convection begins due to diurnal heating
and local effects. Another active afternoon with showery weather is
expected today focused along the Central Cordillera with winds also
pushing showers northward and westward. Although dry air will filter
into the area from the south on Wednesday night, moisture related to
a frontal boundary and associated trough will approach the area from
the northwest as winds continue to veer. PWAT values above 1.5
inches, related to the frontal boundary will push into the area
by Thursday afternoon. Current model guidance indicates increasing
PWAT values of up to near and around 2 inches by Thursday night
as the cold front moves across the area. Increasing moisture, both
at surface and into the mid-to-upper levels, and instability will
promote yet another active afternoon on Thursday as the front
moves southwards, scattered to numerous shower activity should
focus mainly over interior and northeastern Puerto Rico, causing
ponding of water over roadways and poorly drained areas. Moisture
and showers related to the front should linger through Friday
morning and early afternoon, before drier, cooler air settles in
and winds become north to northeasterly to end the workweek.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
According to the GFS columnar moisture reaches a minimum Saturday
morning as drier air pushes into the area behind the cold front
that moved through Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure at
the surface will be north of Puerto Rico at around 29 north. This
high moves into the Central Atlantic ocean during the period but
the ridge that trails it remains across the Atlantic waters north
of us just north of 20 north. This will maintain the moderate to
fresh trade winds over the area that will begin on Thursday.
Moisture recovers somewhat Sunday through Tuesday, but mid levels
remain dry. At upper levels high pressure that was forced to
remain over South America and Panama, will begin to ridge into the
Central Caribbean and that ridge will approach the local area on
Wednesday.
Although the drier air invades behind the front the brisk winds
behind the front and a shallow moist layer that continue with few
breaks during the long term period will be able to generate some
scattered showers on the windward side of the island of Puerto
Rico during the night and morning hours. some convection may also
appear in western Puerto Rico during the afternoons, but amounts
will be light to to the invigorated trade winds.
The U.S. Virgin Islands will see only isolated showers during the
period, although a better chance exists during the overnight
periods through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM AST Wed Mar 15 2023
Overall VFR conditions will continue for all of the
local terminals today. Winds will be up to around 12 kts under a
generally southeasterly flow with sea breeze variations, with
winds veering to become more southerly as the day progresses.
Brief MVFR conditions possible due to showers reaching eastern
terminals. Afternoon shower activity could also impact mainly TJBQ
and TJSJ. Maximum winds W 35-45 knots btwn FL 240-480. Winds will
likely increase to above 50 knots around FL400 during the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 514 AM AST Wed Mar 15 2023
Seas at the outer buoy (41043) have dropped from 8 feet to
between 6 and 7.5 feet overnight. Seas at our inner buoy (41053)
have been steady between 5.5 and 6.0 feet. Periods have ranged
from 14 to 15 seconds at these buoys. Seas are expected to subside
only a little between now and Thursday midday. After which a
stronger swell of up to 10 feet from the north will enter the
area. Small craft advisories will continue in the Mona Passage and
the outer Atlantic waters through at least Sunday. For some of
the inner waters of the Atlantic ocean seas will drop below 7 feet
until Thursday night beginning late tonight. High surf and a high
risk of rip currents will continue for Puerto Rico through
Sunday. The U.S. Virgin Islands and Culebra will see a break
in the high surf beginning Thursday or Thursday night for no more
than 24 hours, before more serious conditions return on Friday.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for PRZ001-002-005-008-
010-012.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ011-013.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001-002.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for VIZ001.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-741-742.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Thursday for AMZ712-716-723.
&&
CAM,RVTPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 1123 AM AST miercoles 15 de marzo de 2023 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-161530- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central- Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe- 1123 AM AST miercoles 15 de marzo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Tronadas aisladas son posibles a traves del interior y norte. Permanezca atento a tronadas en su area y este preparado para buscar refugio. .Lluvias excesivas...Inundaciones de areas urbanas, calles, riachuelos y drenajes. Inundaciones repentinas aisladas son posibles. .Condiciones Maritimas...Oleaje mayor o igual a 7 pies en las aguas del Atlantico y los pasajes locales. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequenas. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente a traves de las playas desde el suroeste al noroeste al noreste de Puerto Rico, al igual que las playas expuestas de Culebra y Vieques. Olas rompientes de hasta 11 pies promoveran condiciones peligrosas para nadar y surfear. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes Pulsos de marejadas del norte y vientos de moderados a localmente vigorosos resultaran en oleaje de 7 pies o mas a traves de las aguas locales del Atlantico y los pasajes del Caribe hasta el sabado. Un frente frio se movera el jueves y viernes, trayendo aguaceros fuertes que pudieran resultar en acumulacion de agua en sectores de pobre drenaje. El riesgo de corrientes marinas seguira alto para las playas con exposicion hacia el norte a noreste. Los vientos tambien aumentaran se tornaran mas del noreste para finales de la semana laboral. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar situaciones relacionadas a las condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar inundaciones, vientos y oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-161530- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Las aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlantico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 1123 AM AST miercoles 15 de marzo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Lluvias excesivas...Inundaciones de areas urbanas, calles, riachuelos y drenajes. Inundaciones repentinas aisladas son posibles. .Condiciones Maritimas...Oleaje mayor o igual a 7 pies en las aguas del Atlantico y los pasajes locales. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequenas. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente a traves de las playas de las islas locales, particularmente el norte y noroeste de San Thomas y el extremo este de Santa Cruz. Olas rompientes de hasta 10 pies resultaran en condiciones peligrosas para nadar y surfear en San Thomas y San John. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes Pulsos de marejadas del norte y vientos de moderados a localmente vigorosos resultaran en oleaje de 7 pies o mas a traves de las aguas locales del Atlantico y los pasajes del Caribe hasta el sabado. Un frente frio se movera el jueves y viernes, trayendo aguaceros fuertes que pudieran resultar en acumulacion de agua en sectores de pobre drenaje. El riesgo de corrientes marinas seguira alto para las playas con exposicion hacia el norte a noreste. Los vientos tambien aumentaran se tornaran mas del noreste para finales de la semana laboral. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar situaciones relacionadas a las condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar inundaciones, vientos y oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
The San Juan radar (TJUA), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:37 UTC.
2 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Urban flooding was reported in Calle M in Hato Rey.
Flooding was reported on Simon Madera Avenue, near the intersection of the Ramal 8. A house and the street were affected by the flood waters.
Parking lot flooded near road 190 and Ave. Jose Tony Santana. The flood waters were reaching the floors of the cars.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1084784, 1084782, 1084785.