High Wind in Texas, March 15, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1259 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Summary:

The long awaited temperature roller coaster is ahead for the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.

Expect warm and windy conditions today with solidly elevated fire
weather conditions in the western two thirds of the Panhandles.

A strong cold front arrives Thursday morning causing temperatures to
tumble and remain cool for several days thereafter. Brisk north
winds and light rain and/or snow will likely accompany the
frontal passage. Unfortunately, the overall pattern and
examination of other meteorological variables suggests amounts
will be light.

Details:

07z WV satellite shows a longwave neutral upper trough over the
Pacific Northwest, a broad upper jet over S CA and the Rockies, and
a weak upper ridge over the Panhandles. At the surface, breezy south-
southeasterly winds continue as a lee surface trough slowly deepens
to our northwest in response to the advancing upper jet. Dewpoints
are generally in the 30s and are slowly on the increase as upper 30s
and lower 40s dewpoints are present to our southeast.

Today, lee surface troughing will continue to deepen to the
northwest as the upper jet advances downstream. This should cause
winds to shift to southwesterly, with these downsloping winds
helping temperatures to rise into the 70s with a stray 80 reading
not impossible. Given orientation of the winds have leaned
temperatures above NBM values but refrained from going with the
warmest side of guidance. Similarly, have moved toward a time lagged
HRRR/RAP blend for dewpoints to better capture the lower values
favored in the western Panhandles in these scenarios. With a 40 knot
850mb jet aloft expected, sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph could
occur. While this is below our usual Wind Advisory criteria, have
issued a Wind Advisory due to collaboration concerns. Winds and RH
falls will lead to solidly elevated fire weather concerns, as
discussed below.

Thursday, aforementioned longwave trough advances over the central
and northern Plains, causing a strong cold front to barrel southward
in the morning. Given the morning arrival and the trend toward
faster southward movement seen in guidance, have confidently moved
to the cold side of consensus blend temperatures for highs Thursday.
As the cold front arrives, guidance is in good agreement that a
southern stream shortwave in the quasi-zonal flow aloft will advance
downstream. This setup - low level saturation with isentropic lift
over the cold dome ahead of a modest shortwave - usually leads to
small amounts of precipitation. Have therefore gone with likely PoPs
across nearly the entire CWA. Unfortunately, this pattern tends to
favor suboptimal moisture profiles either through dry air in the
midlevels - usually including the dendritic growth zone - or in the
near surface layer, particularly within a few hours after the
initial frontal passage. Progged soundings reflect these usual
saturation struggles. Have thus gone with the low side of consensus
blends for both QPF and snow amounts, small mesoscale adjustments
within the first three days of the forecast compared to WPC output.
Finally, given robust surface pressure rises after the frontal
passage, expect windy conditions Thursday as well. In summary,
Thursday is a classic miserable post-frontal likely PoP, low QPF day.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Winter like temperatures make a return to the Panhandles late this
work week through the weekend. Highs in the 40s and 50s will
certainly be cool for this time of year as average highs are in
the mid 60s. Precipitation chances return to the forecast in the
second half of the weekend and continue into early next week. Rain
and snow are possible, but a lot of uncertainty remains.

A rather messy upper level pattern is expected during the long
term forecast. With a lot going on in the upper levels, models
disagree on the placement of any ridges, troughs, shortwaves,
etc., which is leading to confidence issues. Overall, a H500
trough looks to move over a majority of the central and eastern
CONUS, with the low pressure center moving over the Northern
Plains towards the Great Lakes. With ridging to the west, westerly
to northwesterly flow is expected over the Panhandles through this
upcoming weekend. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across
the Desert Southwest towards the Southern High Plains during the
later half of the weekend. Some precipitation may develop across
the region given the lift provided by the upper level wave. A few
factors are leading to confidence issues with regards to any
precipitation. Model disagreement is first and foremost, followed
by the general upper level pattern. This pattern is not the most
favorable for bringing beneficial precipitation to the region, but
cannot rule out some light precipitation based on the 15/00z
suite of guidance. The precipitation type is way too early to
determine with any sort of confidence, especially as some models
usher in a lot of CAA and others are not as excited about the
depth of the cold air. Still plenty of days to work out those
details as the highest chances for precipitation are on Sunday and
Monday. With that being said, temperatures Sunday and beyond are
very much up in the air, with a large difference noted in the
deterministic and ensemble solutions. In any case, below average
temperatures will prevail through early next week across the area.
Just how cool will each day be is still uncertain, but cannot rule
out some locations only having highs in the 30s late this weekend
into early next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

VFR conditions today, though there may be patchy blowing dust
especially near KDHT. That said, visibility restrictions should be
somewhat localized and chances of seeing significant restrictions to
MVFR levels at TAF sites is too low to mention. MVFR conditions are
expected to arrive at KDHT by 12z, and KAMA and KGUY at 14z behind a
strong cold front. IFR CIGs are not shown in forecast, but there is
a slight chance of seeing CIGS below 1000 FT. Visibility may be
lowered to MVFR levels due to mist/light rain. Rain will be changing
to snow toward the end of the TAF period starting in the
northwestern combined Panhandles but marginal surface temperatures
are expected to mitigate accumulation potential.

Vanden Bosch/Gittinger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                77  49  54  23 /   0   0  80   0
Beaver OK                  77  39  49  20 /   0  10  70  10
Boise City OK              76  35  43  18 /   0  10  80   0
Borger TX                  80  48  53  24 /   0  10  80   0
Boys Ranch TX              79  47  52  22 /   0  10  80   0
Canyon TX                  78  48  56  23 /   0   0  70   0
Clarendon TX               76  55  60  26 /   0   0  60   0
Dalhart TX                 76  38  48  19 /   0  10  90   0
Guymon OK                  79  36  44  19 /   0  10  80   0
Hereford TX                78  47  56  23 /   0   0  70   0
Lipscomb TX                73  46  53  23 /   0   0  70  10
Pampa TX                   76  48  52  23 /   0  10  70   0
Shamrock TX                71  54  60  26 /   0   0  60   0
Wellington TX              74  55  64  28 /   0  10  60   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>011.

OK...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
442 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-152200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
442 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in the western two
thirds of the Panhandles this afternoon.

Sustained southwest winds of 35 may occasionally occur in the eastern
third of the Oklahoma and northern half of the Texas Panhandle this
afternoon. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials across western parts of
the area should be alert for elevated fire weather conditions
Wednesday afternoon.