Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2024

Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 31, 2024Swift County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2024, 1:48 PM CDT for Swift County, Minnesota. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2024, 1:48 PM CDT (18:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2024, 2:45 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN
Hail: 0.50 in
Wind: 50

County Swift County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 192 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1405 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -166 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1223 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 1:19 PM CDT, 29 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Some significant severe storms possible today, with uncertainty regarding timing and location.
Heat could approach heat advisory levels today, depending on evolution of storms and clouds.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 1:19 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
119 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some significant severe storms possible today, with
  uncertainty regarding timing and location.

- Heat could approach heat advisory levels today, depending on
  evolution of storms and clouds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Warm and humid will be the story today, which will fuel some
potentially significant severe storms across parts of the area
this afternoon and evening. However, there remains quite a bit
of uncertainty regarding storm activity later today as it could
be heavily influenced by morning convection over South Dakota
which models are struggling to resolve so far. CAMs solutions
in particular are generally not picking up on the morning
activity very well and therefore diverge quite a bit with storm
evolution this afternoon. As the model spread suggests, the
eventual evolution of morning storms could mean anything from
storms/clouds making it as far east as the Twin Cities by mid
afternoon, to storms not reaching western Minnesota until late
afternoon and becoming more of an overnight threat for the metro
and into Wisconsin. With this much uncertainty regarding storms
and clouds, decided to hold off on any heat advisories for now
until the picture can become more clear. If skies remain mostly
sunny through the day, then temperatures could reach as high as
the middle 90s and push heat index values as high as 105.

Depending on how the convective picture eventually plays out
later today, ingredients could line up for some potentially
significant severe storms somewhere in the forecast area. Very
strong instability coupled with rather steep mid-level lapse
rates could favor damaging wind gusts greater than 70 mph as
well as hail of 2" or larger. Shear will be marginal, so the
most likely window for severe storms of this magnitude would be
in the first couple of hours of storm initiation before strong
outflow eventually weakens the overall line of storms. Once
again where and when the strongest storms initiate will depend
on how morning convection plays out, but the more likely
scenario currently points to western and southwestern Minnesota
for the strongest storms this afternoon with a weakening line
approaching the Twin Cities by evening. If storms evolve faster
than this, it could push the threat for severe storms further
east toward the metro. We'll have a much clearer picture
regarding today's thunderstorm and heat threats once models can
better resolve this morning's convection out west.

Thursday could see a few lingering showers and storms generally
from the Twin Cities eastward as an upper level trough slowly
drifts southeastward overhead. Instability and shear parameters
will be generally unfavorable for strong storms with this
activity. Things will then dry out for the weekend while
temperatures rebound back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Will
need to watch for marginal heat concerns although dewpoints
will be about 5 to 10 degrees lower than what we've seen the
past few days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

The main concern through this evening will be the track and timing
of a thunderstorm complex capable of damaging winds. Current
radar has a cluster of severe storms along the central MN/SD
border, and this complex is expected to impact AXN & STC over
the next 1-3 hours. More uncertain is whether complex will build
more to the south, and potentially bring severe thunderstorm
impacts to RWF/MKT/MSP later this afternoon & early evening.
Winds in excess of 40 kts are expected with these thunderstorms
and potentially could gust as high as 70-80 kts. Current
thinking is that we will see additional development tot he south
of the ongoing complex, so have included a TEMPO for TSRA for
2-3 hours late this afternoon and early this evening. More
uncertain is the potential for thunderstorms this evening behind
the ongoing complex. The chance is lower wherever thunderstorms
occur this afternoon, but become much more likely at
RWF/MKT/MSP if the ongoing complex does not show any further
development. For now, have handled this with a PROB30 mention
but this will be upgraded or removed based on convective trends
later this afternoon.

After the precip tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
early tomorrow morning & persist through much of the morning.

KMSP...Very complex forecast regarding thunderstorms chances
this afternoon & evening. The main window for thunderstorms and
severe wind gusts currently looks to be between 5-8 PM. However,
this depends on additional development occurring along the
ongoing thunderstorm complex along the MN/SD border. If this
development does not occur, a later round of thunderstorms
(possibly severe) looks more possible, closer to 7-10 PM. Wind
gusts over 40 kts are likely if the thunderstorm complex reaches
MSP this evening with gusts around 70 kts possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...CHC MVFR -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...ETA

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 3:19 AM CDT, 10 hours 29 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
010830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hot and humid conditions are expected today with heat indices
approaching 95-100 degrees.

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds in excess of 70 MPH
and large hail are likely this afternoon through this evening.
The potential for destructive winds is highest across western
Minnesota, but chances for severe weather still exist into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 1:11 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
111 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ054-055-311900-
Lac Qui Parle MN-Swift MN-
111 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE AND
WESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ortonville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lake Oliver around 140 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Louisburg, Big Stone
National Wildlife Refuge, Appleton Airport, and Holloway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4527 9645 4525 9640 4525 9629 4522 9627
      4519 9617 4520 9613 4518 9610 4541 9611
      4541 9597 4521 9589 4509 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 254DEG 31KT 4525 9642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff

Local storm report, Jul 31, 1:29 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
129 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 WSW Morris            45.57N 95.97W
07/31/2024  M54 MPH          Stevens            MN   AWOS

            AWOS station KMOX Morris AP.

&&

Borghoff

Local storm report, Jul 31, 1:44 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
144 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Chokio                  45.58N 96.17W
07/31/2024                   Stevens            MN   Public

            A few tree branches up to 4 inches in
            diameter downed. Relayed via Emergency
            Manager.

&&

BED

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 1:48 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
148 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNZ048-055-311945-
Pope MN-Swift MN-
148 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL POPE AND NORTHERN
SWIFT COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 148 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Oliver, or 18 miles east of Ortonville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Benson, Lake Hassel, Lake Oliver, Clontarf, De Graff, Danvers,
Holloway, Benson Airport, and Appleton Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 17 and 54.
 U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 138 and 153.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4527 9611 4541 9612 4541 9575 4551 9547
      4523 9539 4522 9610 4524 9610 4524 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 259DEG 29KT 4531 9605

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Borghoff

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 1:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Stevens	59 min
Jul 31, 1:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Big Stone	49 min
Jul 31, 1:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Douglas, Pope	54 min
Jul 31, 2:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Todd	53 min
Jul 31, 2:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Pope, Swift	46 min
Jul 31, 2:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kandiyohi, Meeker, Stearns	42 min
Jul 31, 3:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Morrison	40 min
Jul 31, 3:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Stearns	37 min
Jul 31, 4:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Stevens	38 min
Jul 31, 4:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Renville	46 min
Jul 31, 5:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Ramsey	43 min
Jul 31, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Hennepin, Ramsey	40 min
Jul 31, 5:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	MPX	Stevens	38 min
Jul 31, 5:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Carver	32 min
Jul 31, 5:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Renville	42 min
Jul 31, 5:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MPX	Douglas, Pope	56 min
Jul 31, 5:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	McLeod, Renville, Sibley	54 min
Jul 31, 5:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Dakota	33 min
Jul 31, 6:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Pope, Stevens	55 min
Jul 31, 6:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota, Goodhue, Rice	48 min
Jul 31, 6:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MPX	McLeod, Sibley	44 min
Jul 31, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Douglas	36 min
Jul 31, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Goodhue	62 min
Jul 31, 6:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Lac qui Parle, Swift	40 min
Jul 31, 6:56 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MPX	Dakota, Goodhue	4 hr
Jul 31, 6:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Le Sueur	26 min
Jul 31, 6:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Chippewa, Lac qui Parle, Swift	46 min
Jul 31, 6:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Polk	35 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2024 Every special weather statement in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.